• Tax revenues surge with economic growth.

• Income security & defense outlays continue to decline.

• Interest payments surge.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget surplus of $308.2 billion during April 2022 compared to a $225.6 billion deficit in April 2021. Receipts rose 174.0% from March (96.6% y/y) while outlays rose 9.4% (-16.4% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a $220 billion surplus. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $360.0 billion versus $1.932 trillion deficit in the first seven months of FY'21.

Overall revenues have increased 39.3% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 68.5% y/y as employment levels continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 21.8% with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 7.9% y/y and excise taxes rose 24.6% y/y.

Federal government outlays have declined 17.9% year-to-date in FY'22 versus FY'21. Income security payments roughly halved so far this year in the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays fell 3.2% y/y so far in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 18.3% y/y in the first seven months of FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 6.4% y/y this fiscal year and Medicare outlays rose 1.7% y/y this fiscal year. Interest payments surged by one-quarter y/y so far in FY'22.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.