Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Sandy Batten May 6, 2022
• Led by record increase in revolving credit balances.
• Rise in nonrevolving credit usage slowed slightly.
Consumer credit outstanding increased by a record $52.4 billion (7.3% y/y) in March on top of a $37.7 billion jump in February (revised down from $41.8 billion). A $25.0 billion March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income edged higher to 24.5% in March, the highest level since March 2020, from 24.4% in February.
Revolving consumer credit balances rose a record $31.4 billion (12.8% y/y) in March following a downwardly revised $14.2 billion increase in February (initially $18.0 billion). Revolving credit provided by depository institutions (90% of the total and mostly credit card debt) rose 14.9% y/y, up from 11.9% y/y in February. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the total) rose 8.5% y/y in March versus 5.4% y/y in February. Nonfinancial business loans (2% of the total) were unchanged in March from a year ago. The value of finance company loans (1% of loans) declined 17.0% y/y in March.
The rise in nonrevolving credit slowed to $21.1 billion (5.7% y/y) in March from a record-setting $23.5 billion in February (revised down slightly from $23.8 billion). Federal government lending, which issued 42% of nonrevolving credit, was essentially unchanged m/m but was up 3.1% y/y versus 3.3% y/y in February. Nonrevolving loans by depository institutions (26% of credit) grew 10.5% y/y, up from 9.5% y/y in February. Finance company lending (16% of loans) slowed to 3.5% y/y in March from 5.5% y/y in February. Growth of credit union nonrevolving loans (14% of the total) picked up to 8.7% y/y, the quickest pace since January 2019, from 6.5% y/y in February.
During the first quarter of 2022, the growth of student loan balances slowed to 2.0% y/y from 2.6% in Q4 2021. By contrast, the pace of increase in motor vehicle loans picked up to 7.6% in Q1, the fastest growth since Q3 2015, from 7.4% in Q4 2021.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
