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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 4, 2022
• Falloff is greater-than-expected.
• Sub-index movement is mixed.
• Prices strengthen to record high.
The U.S. ISM Services Index fell to 57.1 in April from 58.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The figure was below the peak of 68.4 in November of last year. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 58.5.
Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading released on Monday. This index eased to 56.9 last month from 58.2 in March. These series date back to July 1997.
In the latest services survey, the new orders series declined to 54.6, the lowest level since February 2021. Moving higher was the business activity index to 59.1, the highest level in three months. A greatly improved 37.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher activity, up from 30.7% in March. A negligible 6.5% reported an activity decline versus 14.7% in March. The supplier delivery series increased to 65.1 (NSA) after falling to 63.4 in March. A lessened 3.8% of respondents reported faster delivery speeds while an increased 64.0% reported slower speeds.
The employment index fell sharply to 49.5 after rising in March to 54.0. A little-changed 24.6% of respondents reported more hiring while 23.1% reported a decline, up from 15.7% in March.
The prices index rose to a record 84.6 in April, up from 83.8 in March and higher than 76.0 twelve months earlier. A record 75.4% (NSA) of respondents reported price increases while 0.2% reported price declines. A reduced 24.4% reported stable prices.
The new export orders index fell to 58.1 from 61.0 in March. The backlog of orders index declined to 59.4 from 64.5, which was the highest level since November. The inventories index rose to 52.3, the highest level since March 2021. The imports index surged to 52.9 in April after falling to 45.0 in March. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.
The ISM figures are available in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the SURVEYS database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
