Recent Updates
- Indonesia: International Trade (Apr)
- Finland: Trend Indicator of Output (Mar), Bankruptcy Filings (Apr)
- Japan: Monetary Survey (Apr), Wholesale & Retail Trade (Mar)
- Singapore: International Trade Press (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller May 4, 2022
• Overall gain is weaker than expected.
• Small business hiring declines.
• Slowdown is broad-based amongst industries.
The job market weakened last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report. It indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 247,000 during April (5.0% y/y) after rising 479,000 in March, revised from 455,000 reported initially. A 373,000 April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Small-sized payrolls fell 120,000, the second decline in the last three months. It followed an unrevised 90,000 March increase. Large-sized payrolls strengthened 321,000 in April (5.8% y/y) after a 197,000 March gain, revised from 177,000. Medium-sized payrolls increased 46,000 (5.9% y/y) after rising 192,000 in March, revised from 188,000.
Within industry sectors, private services employment rose 202,000 last month (5.2% y/y) after increasing 392,000 during March, revised from 377,000. Leisure & hospitality jobs increased 77,000 (16.1% y/y) after gaining 169,000 in March. It was the weakest rise since December 2020.The number of education & health services jobs rose 48,000 (3.3% y/y) after a 71,000 March increase. Professional & business services jobs increased 50,000 (4.2% y/y) following a 64,000 rise. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs grew 15,000 in April (3.3% y/y) after a 54,000 March rise. Employment in financial services rose 8,000 in April (1.8% y/y) after rising 12,000 in March. The number of information sector jobs declined 2,000 (+3.0% y/y) in April after holding steady in the prior month.
Employment in the goods-producing sector improved 46,000 in April (4.4% y/y) following an 87,000 increase. The number of factory sector jobs rose 25,000 (3.6% y/y) following a 53,000 March gain. Construction sector payrolls rose 16,000 (5.2% y/y) after gaining 27,000 in March. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector improved 4,000 (9.3% y/y) after a 7,000 increase.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.