Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 26, 2022
• Present situation & expectations are little changed m/m.
• Expectations for employment deteriorates.
• Expectations for inflation dip.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during April weakened 0.3% (-8.7% y/y) to 107.3 from 107.6, revised from 107.2. A reading of 107.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The Present Situation Index fell 0.8% this month (+15.7% y/y) to 152.6 after rising 7.6% in March to 153.8. The Consumer Expectations index improved 0.7% in April (-28.5% y/y) to 77.2, following three straight months of sharp decline.
The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get, slipped to a 44.6% from the record 47.1% in March. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has had a 69% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure fell this month to 55.2% from the record 56.7% in March. The jobs hard-to-get measure rose to 10.6% of respondents.
Current business conditions were perceived as good by an increased 20.8% of respondents in April. Expectations that business conditions would improve in six months fell to 18.1% of respondents, down from 42.5% in April 2020. More jobs were expected in six months by a lessened 17.4% of respondents, half the percentage twelve months ago. The percentage expecting rising income improved to 16.5% of respondents.
The expected inflation rate in twelve months slipped to 7.5% from 7.9% in March. It remained up from a 4.4% low in January of 2020. Roughly two-thirds of respondents expected that interest rates would rise over the next twelve months, the most in three years. The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months held fairly steady m/m at 5.9% and remained below a June 2020 high of 6.8%. Those planning to buy a major appliance rose sharply m/m to 49.8% of respondents, but remained below 53.9% registered in July 2021.
The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in USECON, and market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
