Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 21, 2022
• Component increases are mixed.
• Coincident indicators continue to rise.
• Lagging indicators strengthen.
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators index increased 0.3% during March (6.4% y/y) after rising 0.6% in February, revised from 0.3%. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Seven of the index components contributed positively to the March increase including the length of the average workweek, initial unemployment insurance claims, factory orders for consumer goods, nondefense capital goods orders, building permits, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond & Fed funds rate and the leading credit index. Consumer expectations for business & economic conditions, the ISM orders index and stock prices contributed negatively to the index change.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators rose 0.4% during March (3.1% y/y), the same as in February, which was unrevised. Each of the four components contributed positively to the index change including nonagricultural employment, personal income less transfers, real manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.6% last month (6.4% y/y) after rising 0.2% in February, revised from no change. The average duration of unemployment, the business inventory-to-sales ratio, the change in factory sector unit labor costs, banks' prime rate, C&I loans, and the services CPI contributed positively to the index change. The consumer installment/personal income ratio was slightly negative.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth from Mary C. Daly, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 6.4 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 1.5 |
Coincident | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 4.0 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
Lagging | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 6.4 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 3.2 |