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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 18, 2022
• Decline is to lowest level since September 2021.
• Current sales & traffic decline.
• Regional readings remain mixed.
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 2.5% (-7.2% y/y) to 77 in April from an unrevised 79 in March. It was the fourth straight monthly decline, pushing the index 14.4% below its peak in November 2020. The decline matched expectations in the INFORMA Global Markets survey.
The current sales reading fell 2.3% (-3.4% y/y) to 85 and stood at its lowest level since September 2021. Moving upward by 4.3% (-8.8% y/y) to 73 was the index of expected sales in the next six months. The index peaked at 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell 9.1% (-18.9% y/y) to 60. The index stood at the lowest level since last August and was 22.1% lower than the November 2020 peak.
Regional activity varied in April. The index for the Midwest fell 17.6% (-18.7% y/y) to 61, its lowest level since June 2020. The index for the West declined 7.7%, both m/m and y/y, to 84. Moving 13.8% higher (-11.9% y/y) to 74 was the index for the Northeast. In the South, the home builder index rose 1.2% (-2.4% y/y) to 82. These regional series begin in December 2004.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '21 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 77 | 79 | 81 | 83 | 81 | 70 | 66 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 85 | 87 | 89 | 88 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 73 | 70 | 80 | 80 | 82 | 74 | 72 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 60 | 66 | 65 | 74 | 68 | 56 | 49 |