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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
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The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
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Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 14, 2022
• Retail inventories continue to build.
• Wholesale inventory gain firms.
• Inventory-to-sales ratio edges higher from near-record low.
Total business inventories rose 1.5% during February (12.4% y/y) following a 1.3% January rise, revised from 1.1%. A 1.3% gain had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Business sales rose 1.0% (18.8% y/y) in February following a 4.1% January gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.26 after falling to 1.25 in January. These figures remained up slightly versus the record low of 1.24 reached last October
The 2.5% increase (19.9% y/y) in wholesale inventories, reported last month, led the rise in inventories overall. Retail inventories gained 1.2% (7.3% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase. The rise reflected a 0.9% increase (-10.3% y/y) in auto inventories which came after three straight months of strong gains. Furniture, electronics and appliance store inventories gained 4.6% (22.3% y/y) after two months of strong growth. General merchandise store inventories surged 2.0% (22.2% y/y) after rising 5.0% in January. Clothing store inventories rose 1.2% (13.7% y/y), the sixth consecutive month of strong increases. Factory inventories increased 0.6% (9.7% y/y) after rising 0.8% in January.
The rise in business sales was led by a 1.7% increase in wholesale sales as reported last Friday. Retail sales increased 0.5% in February (16.4% y/y) after a 5.8% January increase while nonauto retail sales increased 0.2% (16.0% y/y) after surging 5.5% in January. Manufacturing sales posted a 0.6% gain (13.7% y/y) in February following a 1.4% jump in the prior month.
The overall inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher due to modest increases in the retail and wholesale sectors to 1.13 and 1.21, respectively. The I/S ratio in the factory sector held steady at 1.45
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 12.4 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 2.4 |
Retail | 1.2 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | -5.7 | 0.6 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 19.9 | 18.1 | -1.8 | 1.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 9.1 | -0.5 | 5.3 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 1.0 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 18.8 | 18.0 | -2.9 | -0.1 |
Retail | 0.5 | 5.8 | -3.0 | 16.4 | 18.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicle | 0.2 | 5.5 | -3.4 | 16.0 | 16.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.7 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 25.5 | 22.7 | -4.8 | -0.4 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 13.7 | 12.7 | -6.7 | -2.6 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 1.43 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.34 | 1.47 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.22 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.58 | 1.46 |