Recent Updates
- Singapore: International Trade Press (Apr)
- Japan: Monetary Survey (Apr)
- Korea: Foreign Exchange Transactions, Household Loans (Apr)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (APR)
- Euro area: Spring Update (2023)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Andrew Cates April 6, 2022
Supply chain bottlenecks, disrupted trade flows and commodity price tension have been key hallmarks of the macroeconomic scene for some months now. But are these factors now moving into reverse? High frequency indicators of shipping costs – such as the Baltic Dry Index – certainly suggest this may be the case (see figure above).
This index has enjoyed a fairly tight correlation with indicators of real economic activity in commodity markets in recent years. And unsurprisingly it has equally enjoyed a tight correlation with global inflation surprises. Indeed its steep decline over the last six months presages a period in coming weeks where inflation outcomes could elicit far fewer positive surprises and even a few negative surprises.
This, in turn, could clearly be of some importance for policymakers and interest rate expectations in the period ahead. Indeed a relationship that may be worth watching closely against this backdrop is the evolution of activity in commodity markets and US Treasury yields (see final figure below).
Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.