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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2022
• Component improvement is widespread.
• Employment increases.
• Pricing power eases.
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer increased to 62.9 during March after falling to 56.3 in February. It, nevertheless, remained below the May 2021 peak of 73.3. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 57.0. An index above 50 suggests expanding business activity in the Chicago area. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure rose to 63.4.
The production measure rose to 60.0 and recovered its February decline. The new orders reading also rose sharply to 61.9 as a steady 36% of respondents (NSA) reported higher orders but a greatly lessened 11% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 48.1 in March but remained below the recent high of 56.4 in October. An increased 15% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while a greatly lessened 15% reported less hiring. The supplier deliveries series rose to 78.3 from 75.3. Sixty-three percent of respondents reported slower product delivery speeds while none reported quicker speeds. The orders backlog index rose to 64.3, its highest level since October.
The prices paid index dipped to 85.7 March, down from an October high of 94.1. It was the lowest level in twelve months.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'21 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 62.9 | 56.3 | 65.2 | 65.6 | 66.7 | 49.0 | 51.4 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 63.4 | 56.9 | 63.5 | 63.8 | 62.5 | 49.6 | 51.5 |
Production | 60.0 | 55.4 | 60.6 | 69.9 | 65.0 | 48.0 | 51.3 |
New Orders | 61.9 | 53.0 | 65.3 | 62.4 | 66.5 | 47.2 | 52.0 |
Order Backlogs | 64.3 | 61.8 | 61.9 | 59.5 | 66.8 | 42.7 | 47.0 |
Inventories | 68.7 | 57.3 | 54.8 | 54.4 | 49.8 | 44.7 | 48.7 |
Employment | 48.1 | 43.5 | 49.1 | 53.1 | 49.8 | 41.8 | 49.6 |
Supplier Deliveries | 78.3 | 75.3 | 87.6 | 79.0 | 81.2 | 66.4 | 55.6 |
Prices Paid | 85.7 | 86.5 | 89.0 | 80.9 | 88.0 | 59.5 | 58.6 |