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Economy in Brief
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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by Carol Stone, CBE March 16, 2022
• March 11 week decrease follows sizable advance the week before.
• Applications to purchase edge higher as refinance activity declines.
• Mortgage interest rates advance 20 basis points.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index eased 1.2% (-35.2% y/y) in the week ending March 11 after the previous week’s 8.5% increase. The latest week’s decline came from applications to refinance, which fell 2.8% (-49.3% y/y) after an 8.5% advance in the March 4 week. Applications to purchase a home increased 0.7% (-8.4% y/y) following an advance of 8.6% in the March 4 week.
The share of applications for refinancing fell to 48.4% in the week ended March 11 from 49.5% the previous week. This latest week has the smallest refinance share since May 31, 2019, when it was 42.2%. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity in the latest week was 5.6%, up from 5.2% the week before.
Mortgage interest rates resumed increasing in the March 11 week, rising to 4.42% for 30-year fixed-rate loans from 4.22% the week before. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage was 3.66% in the latest week after the prior week’s 3.50%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year mortgage rose to 4.13% from 3.91% while that on a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage declined to 3.44% from 3.49%.
Applications for fixed-rate loans decreased 1.5% in the March 11 week (-37.1% y/y) following their advance of 8.6% in March 4 week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages increased 4.9% (31.4% y/y) after rising 7.1% in the previous week.
The average size of a mortgage loan edged down marginally, 0.03% (14.9% y/y), in the week of March 11 to $376,100. The average size of a loan for purchase rose 0.5% (+11.6% y/y) to $453,200. The average size of a refinanced loan decreased 2.0% (4.8% y/y) to $294,000.
This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 03/11/22 | 03/04/22 | 02/25/22 | Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -1.2 | 8.5 | -0.7 | -35.2 | -8.0 | 63.0 | 32.4 |
Purchase | 0.7 | 8.6 | -1.8 | -8.4 | -2.3 | 11.4 | 6.6 |
Refinancing | -2.8 | 8.5 | 0.5 | -49.3 | -10.7 | 111.0 | 71.1 |
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 4.42 | 4.22 | 4.28 | 3.43
(Mar. '21) |
3.25 | 3.40 | 4.34 |