Recent Updates
- Singapore: International Trade Press (Apr)
- Japan: Monetary Survey (Apr)
- Korea: Foreign Exchange Transactions, Household Loans (Apr)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (APR)
- Euro area: Spring Update (2023)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller March 10, 2022
• Revenues surge with stronger employment.
• Outlays continue to fall with fewer income security outlays.
• Interest payments multiply.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $216.6 billion during February 2022 compared to a $310.9 billion deficit in February 2021. Receipts declined 37.7% from January (+16.7% y/y) while outlays rose 46.2% (-9.4% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a $214 billion February deficit. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $475.6 billion versus $1.047 trillion in the first five months of FY'21.
Overall revenues have increased 25.8% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 38.3% y/y as employment levels continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 31.4% with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 8.1% y/y and excise taxes rose 30.0% y/y.
Federal government outlays have declined 8.1% year-to-date in FY'22. Income security payments declined 28.8% so far this year because of the absence of economic stimulus checks, which had been issued in 2021. National defense outlays edged 0.2% higher y/y so far in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 20.0% y/y in the first five months of FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 5.5% so far this fiscal year and Medicare outlays rose 1.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. Interest payments have gained 21.9% y/y so far in FY'22.
Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Feb | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$216.6 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -475.6 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 25.8 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 38.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 31.4 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -8.1 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 20.0 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | 1.2 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | -28.8 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Interest | 5 | 21.9 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
