• Revenues surge with stronger employment.

• Outlays continue to fall with fewer income security outlays.

• Interest payments multiply.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $216.6 billion during February 2022 compared to a $310.9 billion deficit in February 2021. Receipts declined 37.7% from January (+16.7% y/y) while outlays rose 46.2% (-9.4% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a $214 billion February deficit. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $475.6 billion versus $1.047 trillion in the first five months of FY'21.

Overall revenues have increased 25.8% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 38.3% y/y as employment levels continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 31.4% with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 8.1% y/y and excise taxes rose 30.0% y/y.

Federal government outlays have declined 8.1% year-to-date in FY'22. Income security payments declined 28.8% so far this year because of the absence of economic stimulus checks, which had been issued in 2021. National defense outlays edged 0.2% higher y/y so far in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 20.0% y/y in the first five months of FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 5.5% so far this fiscal year and Medicare outlays rose 1.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. Interest payments have gained 21.9% y/y so far in FY'22.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.