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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone, CBE March 3, 2022
• New orders for manufactured goods gained in January; December’s decline is revised to an increase.
• Durable and nondurable goods shipments have notable increases.
• Unfilled orders and inventories also grow.
Manufacturers’ new orders rose 1.4% in January (+13.6% y/y) following a 0.7% increase in December, which was revised from a decline of 0.4% reported a month ago. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.4%% m/m increase in January. In the initial December report, we noted that the decline reported then largely reflected a drop in transportation orders, such that orders excluding transportation had risen a modest 0.1% m/m. Now, transportation orders in December are shown to have increased 1.7% and in January 3.4%. Orders excluding transportation are now seen to be up 0.5% in December and 1.0% in January.
Durable goods orders were up 1.6% in January (14.2% y/y) following a 1.2% increase in December, revised from a 0.7% drop initially reported. In addition to the surge in transportation orders in January, machinery orders were up 2.6% and fabricated metals up 0.2%. Orders for computers and electronic equipment rose marginally, while primary metals orders decreased marginally. Electrical equipment orders fell 0.6% in January and those for furniture were down 4.0%.
New orders for nondurable goods rose 1.2% m/m (13.0% y/y) in January, following a 0.1% m/m rise in December.
Total shipments rose 1.2% m/m (10.8% y/y) in January after 0.7% in December. Excluding transportation, shipments increased 1.3% m/m (12.4% y/y), following a 0.6% m/m gain in December. Shipments of durable goods rose 1.1% m/m (8.7% y/y) in January, following a 1.3% m/m rise in December. Transportation equipment slowed to just a 0.3% (2.0% y/y) increase in January while machinery was the strongest sector, with its shipments up 2.7% in January (14.3% y/y).
Nondurable goods shipments rose 1.2% in January (13.0% y/y) and December’s were revised from the previously reported 0.2% decline to a 0.1% m/m increase. Shipments of petroleum and coal products advanced 2.8% (37.9%), reversing a 1.5% decrease in December.
Unfilled orders increased 0.9% m/m (8.9% y/y) in January, after an 0.8% m/m rise in December. They have risen steadily beginning in February 2021, averaging 0.7% per month. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.5% m/m (15.0% y/y) in January, following an 0.8% m/m rise in December. As in December, gains were again widespread, with primary metals the strongest at a 1.3% monthly advance (17.9% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured goods rose 0.7% in January (9.8% y/y); in December, they had grown 0.4%. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (10.3% y/y) in January while nondurable goods inventories were up 1.2% (9.0% y/y).
The factory sector data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 13.6 | 16.8 | -10.4 | -0.2 |
Shipments | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 10.8 | 12.7 | -6.7 | -2.6 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 7.7 | -8.2 | 10.2 |
Inventories | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 9.1 | -0.5 | 5.3 |