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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Strengthen in February
by Tom Moeller  March 2, 2022

• January decline revised to robust increase.

• Leisure & hospitality sector posts firm growth.

• Construction & factory sectors also improve.

The job market remained strong last month as hiring restrictions due to COVID-19 were eased. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 475,000 during February (5.6% y/y) after rising 509,000 in January, revised from a 301,000 decline reported initially. A 325,000 February rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 780,000 December increase was revised from 776,000.

Large-sized payrolls surged 552,000 in February (5.8% y/y) after increasing 284,000 in January, revised from a 98,000 decline. Medium-sized payrolls increased 18,000 in February (6.7% y/y) following a 134,000 January increase, revised from a 59,000 fall. Small-sized payrolls indicated weakness last month, falling 96,000 (+4.4% y/y) after a 92,000 January rise, revised from -144,000.

Within industry sectors, private services employment led last month's growth with a 417,000 rise (5.9% y/y) after a 421,000 January increase, revised from a 274,000 decline. Leisure & hospitality jobs increased 170,000 (18.8% y/y) after increasing 144,000 in January, revised from -154,000. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs grew 98,000 (4.0% y/y) after rising 104,000 the month earlier, revised from a 62,000 decline. Professional & business services jobs strengthened 72,000 (4.8% y/y) after increasing 83,000, revised from a 3,000 decline. The number of education & health services jobs improved 40,000 (3.4% y/y) after a 50,000 increase, revised from -15,000. Employment in financial services rose 11,000 in February (1.8% y/y) after a 14,000 improvement, revised from -9,000. The number of information sector jobs improved 8,000 in February (3.9% y/y) after a 6,000 gain, revised from an 8,000 decline.

Employment amongst goods-producing firms in February increased 57,000 in February (4.5% y/y) after rising 88,000 in January, revised from a 27,000 decline reported last month. The number of factory sector jobs rose 30,000 (3.9% y/y) after a 50,000 increase, revised from -21,000. Construction sector payrolls rose 26,000 (5.3% y/y) after 35,000 January rise, revised from, a 10,000 decline.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell is available here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Feb Jan Dec Feb Y/Y 2021 2020 2019
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 475 509 780 5.6% 3.8% -6.2% 1.1%
 Small Payroll (1-49) -96 92 179 4.4 4.9 -5.6 -0.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 18 134 201 6.7 4.8 -7.1 1.6
 Large Payroll (>500) 552 284 401 5.8 2.7 -6.1 1.5
Goods-Producing 57 88 130 4.5 2.1 -4.3 1.3
  Construction 26 35 58 5.3 3.3 -2.4 2.5
  Manufacturing 30 50 69 3.9 1.8 -4.9 0.7
Service-Producing 417 421 651 5.9 4.1 -6.5 1.0
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