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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 25, 2022
• Pending home sales weaken to lowest level in nine months.
• Sales fall in most of country.
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors fell 5.7% (-9.5% y/y) to 109.5 in January following a 2.3% December fall, revised from -3.8%. Earlier figures also were revised. It was the third consecutive monthly decline with sales down 14.5% from the August 2020 peak. The Realtors Association indicated, "With inventory at an all-time low, buyers are still having a difficult time finding a home."
Pending home sales declined in most major regions of the country. Sales in the Northeast weakened 12.1% last month (-16.7% y/y) after a 1.3% December decline. Sales in the South were off 6.3% during January (-8.7% y/y) to the lowest level in six months. January sales in the Midwest declined 5.9% both m/m and y/y. To the upside, sales in the West increased 1.5% (-9.7% y/y), the first increase in three months.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y % | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -5.7 | -2.3 | -2.9 | -9.5 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 0.8 |
Northeast | -12.1 | -1.3 | -0.2 | -16.7 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
Midwest | -5.9 | -2.5 | -7.5 | -5.9 | 2.2 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
South | -6.3 | -0.3 | -1.8 | -8.7 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 1.6 |
West | 1.5 | -7.6 | -1.8 | -9.7 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 |