Recent Updates
- Japan: Monetary Survey (Apr), Wholesale & Retail Trade (Mar)
- Singapore: International Trade Press (Apr)
- Korea: Foreign Exchange Transactions, Household Loans (Apr)
- Pakistan: Foreign Currency Deposits and Utilization (APR)
- Euro area: Spring Update (2023)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
EMU IP Drops Month-to-Month and Year-over-Year
Industrial output among EMU members fell by 1.8% month-to-month in March...
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased 0.5% during April...
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Affordable homes are in short supply...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller February 18, 2022
• Component changes are mixed.
• Coincident indicators continue to rise.
• Lagging indicators increase for fifth straight month.
The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators index declined 0.3% (+7.3% y/y) during January after rising 0.7% in December, revised from 0.8%. It was the first monthly decline since February 2021. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Four of the index's ten components contributed negatively to the January decline including the length of the average workweek, initial unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and consumer expectations for business & economic conditions. Contributing positively were the ISM orders index, building permits, the leading credit index, the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and Fed funds, orders for consumer goods & materials and orders for nondefense capital goods.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators improved 0.5% (3.0% y/y) during January after rising an unrevised 0.2% in December. Each of the four components contributed positively to the index change including nonagricultural employment, personal income less transfers, real manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.7% (4.1% y/y) during January following a 0.4% December gain, revised from 0.1%. The services CPI, average duration of unemployment, real C&I loans outstanding and the consumer installment/personal income ratio contributed positively to the index change. The change in labor costs per unit of output contributed negatively. The banks' prime rate and the manufacturing & trade inventory-to-sales ratio had no effect on the lagging index change last month.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 7.2 | -4.1 | 1.5 |
Coincident | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -3.6 | 1.1 |
Lagging | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 4.1 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 3.2 |