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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 16, 2022
• Decline adds to January weakening.
• Future sales & traffic fall again but current sales improve.
• Regional changes are mixed.
Housing market activity is mixed this month. The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell to 82 in February after an unrevised weakening to 83 in January. The decline matched expectations in the INFORMA Global Markets survey.
The index of expected sales in the next six months dropped to 80 in February from 82 in January but was stable y/y. The index peaked at 89 in November 2020. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell sharply to 65 from 69 and was down 9.7% y/y. The present sales conditions index improved to 90 this month from 89 in January, but was unchanged y/y.
February's regional activity is mixed too. The index for the Northeast rose to 78 this month from January's 71 but was down 10.3% y/y. In the West, the index increased to 91 from 89 and was unchanged y/y. Elsewhere in the country there was weakness this month. In the South, the home builder index fell for the second straight month but improved 2.4% y/y. In the Midwest, the index also fell for the second straight month and was down 12.3% y/y. These regional series begin in December 2004.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb '21 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 82 | 83 | 84 | 84 | 81 | 70 | 66 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 90 | 89 | 90 | 90 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 80 | 82 | 85 | 80 | 82 | 74 | 72 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 65 | 69 | 71 | 72 | 68 | 56 | 49 |