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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 11, 2022
• Rising home prices couple with higher mortgage rates to dampen affordability.
• Family income increase fails to keep pace with rising home costs.
• Payment as a percent of income reaches six-month high.
Potential home buyers are increasingly challenged when it comes to finding affordable properties. The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 0.9% in December (-14.7% y/y) to 147.1 from 148.4 in November, revised from 147.8. The October figure was unrevised at 148.8. Affordability has fallen 21.7% since its recent high of 187.8 in January 2021. The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when median family income equals the amount required for an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home.
In December, the median sales price of a home rose 0.8% (16.1% y/y) to $364,300, following a 0.5% November increase to $361,300. Mortgage rates rose to 3.15% in December 2021, up from a low of 2.73% twelve months earlier. As a result, the monthly mortgage payment rose 1.2% to $1,252 (22.5% y/y) from $1,237, roughly equaling the June 2021 record of $1,253.
Median family income in December rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y) to $88,417 from $88,137 in November. As a result, the standard mortgage payment as a percent of income rose to 17.0%, the highest in six months. These figures are increased from a low of 13.3% last January.
Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver's REALTOR database. Median home sale prices are also located in USECON. Higher frequency interest rate data can be found in SURVEYW, WEEKLY, and DAILY.
Searching for Maximum Employment from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Housing Affordability | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index (100+=More Affordable) | 147.1 | 148.4 | 148.8 | -14.7 | 157.9 | 172.3 | 161.3 |
Payment as a Percent of Income | 17.0 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 14.5 | 15.9 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
Principal and Interest Payment ($) | 1,252 | 1,237 | 1,231 | 22.5 | 1,183 | 1,028 | 1,044 |
Monthly Mortgage Rate (%) | 3.15 | 3.12 | 3.12 | 2.73 | 3.01 | 3.17 | 4.04 |
Median Family Income ($) | 88,417 | 88,137 | 87,941 | 4.5 | 89,166 | 84,969 | 80,808 |
Median Sales Price (Existing Single-Family Home, $) | 364,300 | 361,300 | 359,500 | 16.1 | 350,167 | 298,708 | 272,333 |