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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 9, 2022
• Inventory gain is broad-based.
• Sales increase is negligible.
• I/S ratio increases.
Wholesale inventories rose 2.2% (18.5% y/y) during December compared to a 2.5% gain reported in the advance report issued on January 26. November's inventory increase was revised to 1.7% from 1.4%. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected a 2.1% December gain.
Durable goods inventories increased 2.6% in December (20.0% y/y), the same as in November. Motor vehicle & parts inventories led the gain and rose 4.6% rise (10.3% y/y). Furniture & home furnishings inventories followed with a 4.3% rise (34.1% y/y). Metals & minerals inventories also increased 4.3% (48.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories were up 3.9% (26.4%), while professional & commercial equipment inventories increased 2.8% (17.0% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.4% (6.0% y/y). In the nondurable sector, inventories increased 1.6% (16.2% y/y) after a 0.4% November rise. A 3.1% increase (35.6% y/y) in inventories of petroleum & petroleum products led the December rise. Apparel inventories gained 5.2% (21.6% y/y) while chemicals inventories rose 2.1% (20.5%). Grocery inventories increased 1.5% (20.3% y/y) as paper & paper product inventories edged 0.7% higher (12.3% y/y).
Wholesale sales gained 0.2% (21.8% y/y) during December after increasing 1.7% in November, revised from 1.3%. A 0.7% rise was anticipated in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods sales improved 0.5% in December (15.5% y/y) after increasing 1.1% in November. Lumber sales strengthened 4.1% (24.6% y/y) and purchases of motor vehicles gained 2.5% (1.8%). Electrical equipment sales increased 1.1% (16.4% y/y) and hardware, plumbing & heating products increased 1.3% (11.7% y/y). To the downside, machinery sales declined 2.7% (+15.4% y/y) and metals sales fell 2.2% (+56.1% y/y). Furniture & home furnishings sales declined 1.8% (+14.2% y/y). Sales of nondurable goods eased 0.1% in December (+27.9% y/y) following three straight months of strong gains. Sales of paper product sales declined 1.5% (19.1% y/y) and grocery sales held steady (20.2% y/y). Increasing were apparel sales by 2.9% (18.1% y/y) and sales of petroleum products which rose 0.7% (82.2% y/y) with higher prices. Chemical purchases improved 0.2% (26.2% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.25 in December, its highest level since February. The durable goods I/S ratio surged to 1.61, up from a May low of 1.48. The nondurable I/S ratio rose to 0.93, down from 1.02 twelve months earlier.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inventories | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 | -1.9 | 1.4 |
Sales | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 21.8 | 22.4 | -4.9 | -0.2 |
I/S Ratio | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.28 (Dec. '20) | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.35 |