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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 3, 2022
• Initial claims fall to four-week low.
• Continued claims decline again.
• Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 238,000 in the week ended January 29 (-71.6% y/y) from 261,000 in the prior week, revised from 260,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 245,000 claims for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of claims rose to 255,000, the highest level since the second week of November.
Initial claims for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, which expired on September 6, 2020, are no longer included in this report. This program provided benefits to individuals who were not eligible for regular state unemployment insurance benefits, such as the self-employed.
In the week ended January 22, seasonally adjusted continued weeks claimed for regular state unemployment insurance fell to 1.628 million (-66.0% y/y) from 1.672 million in the prior week. The latest is the smallest since April 1973.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% in the week ended January 22. The record low for the series of 1.1% occurred in April 2019.
Continued claims for both the PUA program and for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (a program for those unemployed who had exhausted their state benefits) are no longer included in this report as both programs have expired.
In the week ended January 15, the not seasonally adjusted total number of continuing weeks claimed in all programs declined to 2.068 million from 2.141 million in the previous week.
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely. In the week ending January 15, the highest insured unemployment rates were in Alaska (2.96%), New Jersey (2.58%), California (2.54%), Minnesota (2.51%) and Illinois (2.25%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.21%), Alabama (0.29%), North Carolina (0.36%), Arizona (0.47%) and New Hampshire (0.51%). Other state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs include Pennsylvania (1.77%), Ohio (1.19%), Texas (0.94%) and Florida (0.56%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and is in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/29/22 | 01/22/22 | 01/15/22 | Y/Y % | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 238.0 | 261.0 | 290.0 | -71.6 | 473.3 | 1,352.1 | 218.0 |
Initial Claims (NSA) | 257.0 | 268.7 | 340.9 | -69.8 | 473.0 | 1,352.7 | 217.6 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,628.0 | 1,672.0 | -66.0 | 3,260.9 | 10,379.7 | 1,699.0 |
Continuing Claims (NSA) | -- | 2,041.0 | 2,001.0 | -60.7 | 3,259.7 | 10,369.7 | 1,703.6 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
3.4 |
2.3 | 7.1 | 1.2 |