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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller January 18, 2022
• Decline reverses December improvement.
• Future sales & traffic fall but current sales hold steady.
• Weakness extends throughout the country except the West.
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 1.2% in January to 83 (unchanged y/y) and reversed its December gain to 84. The decline followed four consecutive monthly increases. Stability had been expected in the INFORMA Global Markets survey.
The Home Builders indicated that "NAHB analysis indicates the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has increased almost 19% since December 2021," due to supply chain issues.
The index of expected sales in the next six months fell 2.4% and was unchanged y/y at 83. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell 2.8% (+1.5% y/y) to 69 and reversed December's rise. The index of present sales conditions held steady both m/m and y/y at 90 in January.
This month's regional movement was mixed. The index for the Northeast fell 11.3% (+4.4% y/y) to 71 following a 15.9% December gain. In the South, the home builder index declined 2.2% (+6.1% y/y) to 87 and reversed December's rise. In the Midwest, the index fell 2.6% (-7.5% y/y) to 74 following a 1.3% December improvement. Rising 1.1% (-4.3% y/y) was the index for the West as it reversed December's decline. These regional series begin in December 2004.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low." The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan '21 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 83 | 84 | 83 | 83 | 81 | 70 | 66 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 90 | 90 | 89 | 90 | 87 | 76 | 72 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 83 | 85 | 84 | 83 | 82 | 74 | 72 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 69 | 71 | 69 | 68 | 68 | 56 | 49 |