Recent Updates
- Canada: Retail Trade (Nov)
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- Hungary: Social Security Funds Finance (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Philly Fed Index Rebounded in January
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index rebounded in January, rising more than expected to 23.2...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 286,000 (-67.7% y/y) during the week ended January 15...
French INSEE Survey Scores Solid Marks with Mixed Momentum
France's INSEE industry climate reading spurted to 112.4 in January...
U.S. Housing Starts Are Unexpectedly Strong in December
Housing starts rose 1.4% (2.5% y/y) during December to 1.702 million units...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Increase Again
The MBA Loan Applications Index rose 2.3% (-37.3% y/y) in the week ended January 14...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2022
• Monthly deficit is smallest in two years.
• Revenues surge with stronger employment.
• Medicare & Social Security outlays decline Y/Y.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $21.3 billion during December 2021 compared to a $143.6 billion deficit in December 2020. Receipts increased 73.1% (40.6% y/y) from November while outlays rose 7.5% (3.7% y/y). Consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a $27 billion surplus in December. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $377.7 billion versus $572.9 billion in the first three months of last year.
Overall revenues have increased 30.9% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 54.3% y/y as employment continued to strengthen. Corporate tax payments rose 43.3% as business earnings improved. Social insurance taxes rose 5.8% y/y in December and customs duties improved by nearly one-third y/y.
Federal government outlays have increased 3.9% year-to-date in FY'22. Strengthening 61.0% y/y were education, training, employment & social services outlays. Spending on health programs rose 20.5% y/y in the first three months of FY'22. Income security payments rose 10.2% y/y while veteran benefits rose 8.9% y/y. Defense outlays have grown 1.2% so far this fiscal year. To the downside, Social Security outlays dropped 4.9% y/y so far in FY'22 and Medicare outlays fell 1.5% y/y. Interest payments have increased 16.6% so far in FY'22.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$21.3 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -377.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 30.9 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 54.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 43.3 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 30.9 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 20.5 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -1.5 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | 10.2 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | -4.9 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 61.0 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | 16.6 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
