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Economy in Brief
Charts of the Week (Nov 24, 2022)
Investors have, on the whole, been taking a more positive view about the outlook for the world economy...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Solid Rise in October
New orders for durable goods increased a larger-than-expected 1.0% m/m (10.7% y/y)...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 240,000 (-2.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise for a Second Week
Mortgage applications were up for a second consecutive week in the week ended November 18...
Flash PMIs Mixed on the Month
The S&P flash PMIs for November show mixed results...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 12, 2022
• Monthly deficit is smallest in two years.
• Revenues surge with stronger employment.
• Medicare & Social Security outlays decline Y/Y.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $21.3 billion during December 2021 compared to a $143.6 billion deficit in December 2020. Receipts increased 73.1% (40.6% y/y) from November while outlays rose 7.5% (3.7% y/y). Consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for a $27 billion surplus in December. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $377.7 billion versus $572.9 billion in the first three months of last year.
Overall revenues have increased 30.9% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 54.3% y/y as employment continued to strengthen. Corporate tax payments rose 43.3% as business earnings improved. Social insurance taxes rose 5.8% y/y in December and customs duties improved by nearly one-third y/y.
Federal government outlays have increased 3.9% year-to-date in FY'22. Strengthening 61.0% y/y were education, training, employment & social services outlays. Spending on health programs rose 20.5% y/y in the first three months of FY'22. Income security payments rose 10.2% y/y while veteran benefits rose 8.9% y/y. Defense outlays have grown 1.2% so far this fiscal year. To the downside, Social Security outlays dropped 4.9% y/y so far in FY'22 and Medicare outlays fell 1.5% y/y. Interest payments have increased 16.6% so far in FY'22.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Dec | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$21.3 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -377.7 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 30.9 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 54.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 43.3 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 5.8 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 30.9 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2022, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 20.5 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -1.5 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | 10.2 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | -4.9 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 61.0 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | 16.6 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
