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- US: Composite Indexes (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Philly Fed Index Rebounded in January
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index rebounded in January, rising more than expected to 23.2...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 286,000 (-67.7% y/y) during the week ended January 15...
French INSEE Survey Scores Solid Marks with Mixed Momentum
France's INSEE industry climate reading spurted to 112.4 in January...
U.S. Housing Starts Are Unexpectedly Strong in December
Housing starts rose 1.4% (2.5% y/y) during December to 1.702 million units...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Increase Again
The MBA Loan Applications Index rose 2.3% (-37.3% y/y) in the week ended January 14...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2021
• Monthly receipts fall and outlays rise.
• Growth in Federal government receipts strengthen so far in FY'22.
• Defense, Medicare & interest outlays decline this year.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $191.3 billion during November compared to a $145.3 billion deficit in November 2020. November receipts fell 1.0% while outlays rose 5.2%. Expectations had been for a $193 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far in FY'22, the deficit totaled $356.4 billion versus $429.3 billion in the first two months of last fiscal year.
Overall revenues increased 23.6% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 39.3% y/y as employment & earnings continued strong. Corporate tax payments more than doubled as business earnings strengthened. Social insurance taxes rose 7.3% y/y in November and customs duties improved by more than one-quarter y/y.
Federal government outlays increased 3.9% year-to-date in FY'22. Strengthening by 21.8% y/y were health care outlays. Income security payments rose 12.1% y/y while Social Security outlays increased 3.6% y/y. Weakening was defense spending by 1.2% y/y after last year's 4.0% increase. Medicare payments fell 4.1% y/y so far in FY'22 and interest payments fell 2.6% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Nov | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$191.34 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -356.39 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 23.6 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 39.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 158.1 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 28.6 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 21.8 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -4.1 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | 12.1 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 59.3 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | -2.6 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
