Recent Updates
- US: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (Oct), ADP Employment (Nov), GDP & Corp Profits (Q3-2nd), Advance Trade & Inventories (Oct)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Oct)
- Serbia: Retail Sales (Oct)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in November
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index fell 2.0% (-10.5% y/y)...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Rebound a Marginal 0.1% in September
U.S. house prices ticked up 0.1% m/m in Septembe...
U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Slide
Retail gasoline prices declined last week to $3.53 per gallon (+4.6% y/y)...
Belgium Inflation- Some Grounds for Optimism...More for Caution
The Belgian CPI has strong correlations with both German and EMU-wide inflation measures...
Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Remains Weak in November
The general business activity index was -14.4 this month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Big Risk in 2023 For the Fed & Investors---Slowdown in Inflation Proves To Be "Transitory"
Initial Thoughts on Protests in China
State Coincident Indexes in October 2022
State Labor Markets in October 2022
No Responsibility without Authority: Place Control of Monetary Policy in the Executive Branch?
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2021
• Monthly receipts fall and outlays rise.
• Growth in Federal government receipts strengthen so far in FY'22.
• Defense, Medicare & interest outlays decline this year.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $191.3 billion during November compared to a $145.3 billion deficit in November 2020. November receipts fell 1.0% while outlays rose 5.2%. Expectations had been for a $193 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far in FY'22, the deficit totaled $356.4 billion versus $429.3 billion in the first two months of last fiscal year.
Overall revenues increased 23.6% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 39.3% y/y as employment & earnings continued strong. Corporate tax payments more than doubled as business earnings strengthened. Social insurance taxes rose 7.3% y/y in November and customs duties improved by more than one-quarter y/y.
Federal government outlays increased 3.9% year-to-date in FY'22. Strengthening by 21.8% y/y were health care outlays. Income security payments rose 12.1% y/y while Social Security outlays increased 3.6% y/y. Weakening was defense spending by 1.2% y/y after last year's 4.0% increase. Medicare payments fell 4.1% y/y so far in FY'22 and interest payments fell 2.6% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Nov | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$191.34 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -356.39 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 23.6 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 39.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 158.1 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 28.6 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 21.8 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -4.1 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | 12.1 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 59.3 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | -2.6 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
