• Annual gain in core prices stays strong.

• Core goods prices approach double-digit increase y/y, while services prices accelerate.

• Energy prices surge again; food prices are strong.

Price inflation remains robust. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% during November and 6.8% y/y, after increasing an unrevised 0.9% in October. It was the largest y/y increase since June 1982. A 0.7% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.  The CPI excluding food & energy increased an expected 0.5% last month following a 0.6% October gain. The 4.9% y/y increase was the strongest since June 1991.

During the last six months, the CPI overall has risen at a 7.8% annual rate, up from a 1.2% gain during all of last year. The core CPI rose at a 5.5% rate during the last six months, compared to 1.7% in 2020.

Goods prices excluding food & energy surged 0.9% in November (9.4% y/y) after rising 1.0% in October. Used car & truck prices strengthened 2.5% (31.4% y/y) for the second straight month. The cost of new vehicles rose 1.1% (11.1% y/y) and have risen strongly in each of the last seven months. Apparel prices strengthened 1.3% (5.0% y/y) following no change in October. Household furnishings prices rose 0.7% (6.0% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of strength, but prices of appliances eased slightly (+4.9% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in October. Recreation product prices rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after gaining 0.4%, but the cost of televisions fell 1.4% (+7.9% y/y). Medical care product prices edged 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Education & communication product costs declined 1.0% last month (+0.9% y/y) after falling 0.5% in October.

Services prices rose a steady 0.4% last month (3.4% y/y). Shelter prices increased 0.5% (3.8% y/y), the same as in October. Owners' equivalent rent of primary residences improved 0.4% (3.5% y/y) for the third straight month. Rents of primary residences gained 0.4% (3.0% y/y) last month as they did in October while the cost of lodging away from home surged 2.9% (22.2% y/y) after rising 1.4%. Recreation services prices eased 0.5% in November (+2.8% y/y) following a 0.8% rise. Transportation services prices rose 0.7% in November (3.9% y/y) after gaining 0.4% in October, but public transportation costs surged 3.0% (-0.6% y/y) after falling 0.7%. Medical care services rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in October. Education & communication costs held steady last month (1.7% y/y) after a 0.2% improvement.

Energy prices strengthened 3.5% and by roughly one-third y/y. It was the sixth consecutive month of strong increase. Gasoline prices rose 6.1% (58.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Fuel oil & other fuels prices strengthened 1.5% (48.3% y/y) after rising 9.4% in October. Natural gas prices rose 0.6% (25.1% y/y) after a 6.6% gain, while the cost of electricity rose 0.3% last month (6.5% y/y) following a 1.8% October rise.

Food price inflation was strong again at 0.7% (6.1% y/y) last month. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 1.2% (13.1% y/y) following a 1.9% increase, but egg prices declined 2.7% (+8.0% y/y). Cereal & bakery product costs strengthened 0.8% (4.6% y/y) after rising 1.0% while fruit & vegetable prices surged 1.0% (4.0% y/y) in November after edging 0.1% higher in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.2% (5.3% y/y) after five months of firm gain. Dairy prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) for a second straight month.

The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.