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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Are Unexpectedly Strong in November
by Tom Moeller  December 1, 2021

• Medium-size payroll increase accelerates again.

• Construction & factory sectors firm.

• Service-sector growth led by leisure & hospitality.

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 534,000 (4.5% y/y) during November following a 570,000 October increase, revised from 571,000. A 470,000 November increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average gain rose to 543,000 from 469,000 in October. September payrolls increased 526,000, revised from 523,000.

Medium-sized payrolls increased 142,000 last month (6.3% y/y) following a 118,000 October rise. Large-sized payrolls gained 277,000 (3.6% y/y) after rising 334,000 in October. Small-sized payrolls added 115,000 persons in November (4.5% y/y) following a 118,000 October improvement.

Within industry sectors, private services employment increased 424,000 (4.7% y/y) in November after rising 458,000 in October. Leisure & hospitality led the gain with a 136,000 increase (15.8% y/y) after rising 180,000 in October. Professional & business services jobs followed with a 110,000 improvement (3.5% y/y), the largest increase since June 2020. Employment in the trade, transportation & utilities sector added 78,000 jobs (2.7% y/y) following an 80,000 October rise. The number of education & health services jobs rose 55,000 (3.3% y/y), about the same as in each of the prior two months. Employment in financial services improved 13,000 (1.4% y/y) after increasing 15,000 in October. The number of information sector jobs rose 10,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 13,000 October increase.

Employment amongst goods-producing firms increased 110,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 112,000 October rise. These were the largest consecutive increases since September of last year. The number of factory sector jobs rose 50,000 last month (2.5% y/y) after improving 53,000 in October. The size of construction sector payrolls rose a steady 52,000 (4.4% y/y). Employment in the natural resource & mining sector rose 7,000 (9.0% y/y), about the same as in October.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Nov Oct Sep Nov Y/Y 2020 2019 2018
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 534 570 526 4.5% -6.4% 1.4% 1.9%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 115 118 58 4.5 -5.8 0.2 0.8
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 142 118 103 6.3 -7.2 1.9 2.2
 Large Payroll (>500) 277 334 365 3.6 -6.3 1.7 2.4
Goods-Producing 110 112 92 3.4 -4.1 1.5 3.0
  Construction 52 52 42 4.4 -2.5 2.5 4.4
  Manufacturing 50 53 44 2.5 -4.7 1.0 2.1
Service-Producing 424 458 434 4.7 -6.8 1.3 1.7
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