Recent Updates

  • US: Empire State Mfg Survey (Jan)
  • Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jan)
  • Bulgaria: Foreign Trade by Country (Oct)
  • Germany: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (Jan)
  • Belgium: HICP (Dec)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

Texas Manufacturing Activity Eases but Expectations Improve in November
by Tom Moeller  November 29, 2021

• Current new orders growth slips.

• Production & employment improve.

• Price improvement fell but wage growth increases.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, indicated that its General Business Activity Index slipped to 11.8 in November after strengthening to 14.6 in October. A lessened 22.2% of respondents reported improved business activity this month while a fairly steady 10.4% of respondents reported a worsening of business conditions. The survey was conducted from November 15-23 amongst 95 Texas manufacturers.

The new orders growth index rose to 16.8 this month after improving to 13.6 in October, but the unfilled orders measure fell to 17.4 after rising sharply to 20.9 in October. The delivery times reading declined to 21.7, suggesting quicker delivery speeds. Despite the declines, the shipments index surged to 24.3, a four-month high and production rebounded to 27.4, also a four-month high. (These series date back to June 2004.)

The employment index edged up to 28.5, the highest level in seven months. An improved 33.0% of firms reported more hiring this month while a higher 4.5% reported less. The wages & benefits index increased to 47.6 this month, a five-month high, up from 14.0 twelve months ago, as 47.7% of respondents paid higher wages, up from 18.4% twelve months ago. Virtually none paid less this month.

The finished goods prices measure declined to 42.2 in November from October's record 49.8. It reflected a record 45.3% of respondents reporting higher prices while an increased 3.1% reported price declines. The index of prices paid for raw materials strengthened to a record 82.1 in November from 76.3 during October.

The headline reading of expectations for overall business activity in six months strengthened to 28.6 in November, a four-month high. Expected employment & production rose but expected shipments and delivery times fell.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or a decrease is equal. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) Nov Oct Sep Nov '20 2020 2019 2018
Current General Business Activity Index 11.8 14.6 4.6 12.9 -10.6 -1.2 25.8
   Production 27.4 18.3 24.2 8.7 3.7 8.9 21.4
   Growth Rate of New Orders 16.8 13.6 2.5 9.3 -5.3 -1.1 14.8
   Employment 28.5 28.3 26.3 13.0 1.6 9.5 20.0
   Wages & Benefits 47.6 44.1 42.7 14.0 11.5 23.5 29.7
   Prices Received for Finished Goods 42.2 49.8 44.0 6.2 -1.7 2.5 17.6
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months 28.6 15.0 11.5 26.7 6.6 6.4 31.6
   Production 51.7 46.8 41.8 40.9 31.3 35.6 48.6
   Growth Rate of New Orders 29.2 29.3 25.9 32.6 23.9 25.2 35.8
   Employment 36.6 35.1 49.8 28.6 15.5 26.0 37.7
   Wages & Benefits 62.8 60.3 50.4 37.6 26.7 39.7 50.4
close
large image