• Transportation and machinery orders cause decline in October total.

• Gains in primary metals and electrical equipment exceed 1% in October.

• Shipments of nondurable goods surge in October.

Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods fell 0.5% in October (+11.0% y/y) after declining 0.4% in September, which was unrevised from last month’s total. The Action Economics Forecast Survey was expecting an increase of 0.4%.

The decline in total new orders for durable goods was again concentrated in transportation, for which new orders fell 2.6% in October, especially including 17.0% in nondefense aircraft and 21.8% in defense aircraft. After declining in August and September, orders for motor vehicles and parts rose 4.8% in October. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5% in October (+13.4% y/y) following a 0.7% increase in September.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.6% in October (12.9% y/y) after gaining 1.3% in September, which was revised from 0.8% reported last month. For other industries, orders for primary metals rose 1.7% (25.1% y/y) after rising 0.9% in September. Orders for fabricated metal products were up 0.4% (16.4%) in October, the same monthly gain as in September. Machinery orders fell 0.9% in October (16.5% y/y), reversing September’s 1.3% increase. Electrical equipment & appliance orders rose 1.2% in both October (17.8% y/y) and September. Orders for computers and electronic equipment gained 0.7% (3.8% y/y), reversing a 0.2% decrease in September.

Durable goods shipments rose 1.5% in October (9.4% y/y), strengthening from 0.6% in September. As noted in last month’s discussion of this report, some advance data for nondurable goods industries are now available. These show a 2.5% surge in October shipments (16.9% y/y) after a 1.4% advance in September. Shipments in all manufacturing industries increased 2.0% (13.1% y/y) after a 1.0% increase in September.

Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in October (5.5% y/y) following a 0.7% increase in September. Order backlogs for durable goods excluding transportation advanced 0.7% in October (15.3% y/y), following September’s 0.9% increase. New orders and unfilled orders for nondurable goods are not compiled, and that is a long-standing practice.

Inventories of durable goods were up 0.6% (8.4% y/y) in October, following a 1.0% increase in September. Inventories of nondurable goods rose 1.0% (9.6% y/y) following an 0.8% increase in September.

The durable goods and nondurable goods data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.