Recent Updates
- Mexico: BOP (Q3)
- Brazil: BOP (Oct)
- Albania: Bank Credit (Oct)
- Serbia: Earnings (Oct-Final)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Sept)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Charts of the Week (Nov 24, 2022)
Investors have, on the whole, been taking a more positive view about the outlook for the world economy...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Post Solid Rise in October
New orders for durable goods increased a larger-than-expected 1.0% m/m (10.7% y/y)...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 240,000 (-2.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise for a Second Week
Mortgage applications were up for a second consecutive week in the week ended November 18...
Flash PMIs Mixed on the Month
The S&P flash PMIs for November show mixed results...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 11, 2021
• Receipts from individuals & corporations remain strong.
• Income security outlays decline sharply.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $165.1 billion during October compared to a $284.1 billion deficit in October 2020. Expectations had been for a $137 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of Fiscal Year 2021, the budget deficit lessened to $2.772 trillion from $3.132 trillion in FY 2020. Revenues grew 18.3% last year as outlays increased 4.1%.
Overall revenues have increased 19.4% y/y during October. Individual income tax receipts increased 32.3% y/y as employment & earnings continued to grow. Corporate tax payments strengthened 71.6% y/y with improved business profitability. Social insurance taxes rose 3.9% y/y in October and customs duties improved by roughly one-quarter y/y.
Federal government outlays in October declined 13.9% y/y. Defense spending fell 13.8% y/y after last year's 4.0% increase. Medicare payments fell 44.0% y/y. Income security payments declined 3.5% y/y with lower unemployment and the end of the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. Spending on health programs in October grew 10.3% y/y while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Interest payments fell 7.8% y/y in October.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$165.06 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 19.4 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 32.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 71.6 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 26.2 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -13.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | -13.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -44.0 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | -3.5 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -26.4 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 66.4 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | -7.8 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
