Recent Updates
- Albania: Tourism (May)
- Taiwan: Consumer Confidence Index (Jun)
- Pakistan: Scheduled Banks-Deposits, Advances & Investments (May)
- Vietnam: FDI (Jun)
- France: Registered Unemployment & Vacancies (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 11, 2021
• Receipts from individuals & corporations remain strong.
• Income security outlays decline sharply.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $165.1 billion during October compared to a $284.1 billion deficit in October 2020. Expectations had been for a $137 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of Fiscal Year 2021, the budget deficit lessened to $2.772 trillion from $3.132 trillion in FY 2020. Revenues grew 18.3% last year as outlays increased 4.1%.
Overall revenues have increased 19.4% y/y during October. Individual income tax receipts increased 32.3% y/y as employment & earnings continued to grow. Corporate tax payments strengthened 71.6% y/y with improved business profitability. Social insurance taxes rose 3.9% y/y in October and customs duties improved by roughly one-quarter y/y.
Federal government outlays in October declined 13.9% y/y. Defense spending fell 13.8% y/y after last year's 4.0% increase. Medicare payments fell 44.0% y/y. Income security payments declined 3.5% y/y with lower unemployment and the end of the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. Spending on health programs in October grew 10.3% y/y while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Interest payments fell 7.8% y/y in October.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$165.06 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 19.4 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 32.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 71.6 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 26.2 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -13.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | -13.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -44.0 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | -3.5 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -26.4 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 66.4 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | -7.8 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
