Recent Updates
- UK: Lloyds TSB Business Barometer (Nov)
- China: Steel PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Nonmanufacturing PMI (Nov)
- New Zealand: ANZ Business Outlook Survey (Nov)
- Australia: Assets & Liabilities of ADIS (Oct), External Debt, International Investment Position, BOP (Q3)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Manufacturing Activity Eases but Expectations Improve in November
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, conducted by the Dallas Fed, indicated that its General Business Activity Index slipped to 11.8...
German Consumer Climate Falls and Weakness Follows in France and Italy
After two months of logging net positive readings, the look-ahead GfK climate reading slipped back into negative territory...
U.S. Personal Spending & Price Inflation Strengthen
Personal consumption expenditures surged 1.3% (12.0% y/y) during October...
U.S. New Home Sales Rise Slightly in October
New single-family home sales rose 0.4% in October (-23.1% y/y) to 745,000 (SAAR)...
Total U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decrease, But Several Industries Have Sizable Gains
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods fell 0.5% in October (+11.0% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 11, 2021
• Receipts from individuals & corporations remain strong.
• Income security outlays decline sharply.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $165.1 billion during October compared to a $284.1 billion deficit in October 2020. Expectations had been for a $137 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of Fiscal Year 2021, the budget deficit lessened to $2.772 trillion from $3.132 trillion in FY 2020. Revenues grew 18.3% last year as outlays increased 4.1%.
Overall revenues have increased 19.4% y/y during October. Individual income tax receipts increased 32.3% y/y as employment & earnings continued to grow. Corporate tax payments strengthened 71.6% y/y with improved business profitability. Social insurance taxes rose 3.9% y/y in October and customs duties improved by roughly one-quarter y/y.
Federal government outlays in October declined 13.9% y/y. Defense spending fell 13.8% y/y after last year's 4.0% increase. Medicare payments fell 44.0% y/y. Income security payments declined 3.5% y/y with lower unemployment and the end of the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. Spending on health programs in October grew 10.3% y/y while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Interest payments fell 7.8% y/y in October.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Oct | FY'21 | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$165.06 | -$2,772.18 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2021) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 19.4 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 32.3 | 27.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | 71.6 | 75.5 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 32 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 26.2 | 16.7 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -13.9 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 |
| National Defense | 11 | -13.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 |
| Health | 12 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 9.8 |
| Medicare | 10 | -44.0 | -10.3 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 |
| Income Security | 24 | -3.5 | 30.6 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | -26.4 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 66.4 | 25.3 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 |
| Interest | 5 | -7.8 | 2.2 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 |
