Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Joseph G. Carson ([email protected]) October 14, 2021
In September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 500,000 more people found employment, bringing the gain of the past three months to 2.1 million, 300,000 more than the cumulative gains of the first six months of 2021. Yet, the press and private sector analysts characterize the recent jobs data as "dismal."
Come-on man!!!
Household employment counts the number of people working, whereas payroll counts the number of jobs. Household employment tends to be more volatile than payroll employment. But household employment is never revised, while payroll employment is. Q3 payroll employment gain of 1.65 million is roughly 350,000 above initial estimates, and final numbers are still months away.
Household employment is essential to calculating the nation's jobless rate. In the past three months, substantial gains in household employment were behind the sharp in the number of unemployed, resulting in a 1.1 percentage point drop in the civilian unemployment rate.
Monthly declines in the jobless rate of 0.4 percentage points or more are rare. It's even rarer to occur when the jobless rate is below 6%. It happened three times in the past 50 years, and two of those were in Q3 2021.
Labor market data are anything but dismal.
Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.