Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 30, 2021
• Production & new orders weaken while supply constraints ease.
• Employment increases for first time since April.
• Prices paid weaken modestly.
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer dropped to 64.7 in September, the lowest level since February, after falling to 66.8 in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a decline to 65.3. An index above 50 suggests growing business activity in the Chicago area. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure fell to 61.3 in September, its lowest point in three months.
Production eased slightly in September to 60.7 from 61.0 in August. The figure was down sharply from a high of 72.9 in April. A smaller 38% (NSA) of respondents reported a higher level of output and a steady 18% reported a decline. New orders fell to 64.4 in September, a six-month low. Order backlogs posted the largest m/m decline to 61.1 from 81.6. Supplier delivery speeds sped up as indicated by a decline in the index to 81.2, the lowest level since April. A higher 64% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while none reported quicker speeds, down from 10% in April. Inventories slipped to 48.0 in September, indicating a slower pace of inventory liquidation. They remained up from 37.5 in June.
The employment index rose modestly to 52.4 in September after four straight months below the break-even level of 50. An increased 24% (NSA) reported more hiring while a steady 22% reported less.
The prices paid index fell to 90.7 from 93.9 but remained near the series high of the last six months. Eighty-one percent (NSA) of respondents raised prices while none lowered them.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 64.7 | 66.8 | 73.4 | 61.5 | 49.0 | 51.4 | 62.4 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 61.3 | 63.7 | 63.5 | 57.8 | 49.6 | 51.5 | 60.8 |
Production | 60.7 | 61.0 | 68.8 | 66.4 | 47.9 | 51.3 | 64.6 |
New Orders | 64.4 | 67.8 | 72.2 | 63.3 | 47.1 | 52.0 | 63.8 |
Order Backlogs | 61.1 | 81.6 | 70.0 | 51.8 | 42.6 | 46.9 | 58.0 |
Inventories | 48.0 | 48.8 | 42.6 | 46.9 | 44.7 | 48.7 | 55.4 |
Employment | 52.4 | 48.3 | 47.5 | 44.7 | 41.8 | 49.6 | 55.2 |
Supplier Deliveries | 81.2 | 92.8 | 86.5 | 67.9 | 66.4 | 55.6 | 64.8 |
Prices Paid | 90.7 | 93.9 | 91.6 | 63.8 | 59.5 | 58.5 | 74.0 |