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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 11, 2021
• July budget deficit is larger than expected.
• Receipts from individuals & corporations remain strong.
• Income security outlays are firm.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $2.540 trillion for the first ten months of FY 2021. This compares to a $2.807 trillion deficit over the same period last year. For July alone, the deficit totaled $302.1 billion compared to the July '20 deficit of $62.99 billion. Expectations had been for a $199 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues have increased 17.5% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax receipts increased 25.6% y/y in FY'21 as employment & earnings continued to grow. The increase was held back by a delayed tax deadline in 2020. Corporate tax payments strengthened 76.2% y/y with improved business profitability. Social insurance taxes eased 1.0% y/y but customs duties improved 14.6% y/y so far in FY'21.
Federal government outlays have risen 4.0% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase includes a winding down of income security payments due to COVID-19. Spending on health programs grew 4.9% y/y so far this fiscal year. Defense outlays rose 4.5% y/y so far in FY'21 while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Medicare payments declined 10.6% y/y while interest payments rose 2.3% y/y so far in FY'21.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | July | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$302.050 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 | -$665.83 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -$2,540.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 17.5 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 25.6 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 76.2 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | -1.0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 14.6 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.0 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| National Defense | 11 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| Health | 11 | 4.9 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
| Medicare | 12 | -10.6 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| Income Security | 19 | 33.5 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | -0.7 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
| Interest | 5 | 2.3 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |
