• NFIB optimism index reverses June increase.

• Worries about economy increase.

• Price & wage strength eases.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.8 points in July to 99.7 and backed away from its highest reading since last October. Six of the index's 10 components declined.

The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve over the next six months fell to -20% in July from -12% in June. The figure compared to a high of 39 in June of last year. A net -4% of firms expected higher real sales, the weakest reading since February, off from 7% in June. A net 27% intend to increase employment, off slightly from its record high of 28 in June. A slightly lessened net 38% of respondents reported increasing compensation but a record net 27% plan to raise compensation in the next three months. Overall earnings trends, however, deteriorated sharply.

Firms are still having difficulty finding qualified employees. An increased 57% of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find. The figure equaled the series record. Plans to make capital outlays improved slightly.

Inflation pressures eased slightly in July. The percentage of firms raising selling prices eased one point to 46% after rising seven points in June. The percentage planning to raise selling prices held steady at 44%, its highest reading since October 1979.

Important issues for small businesses were the quality of labor, unchanged at 26% for the third straight month and higher than the pandemic low of 15% in April 2020. Inflation concerns eased slightly to 11% from 13%, its highest reading since September 2008.

Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.