Recent Updates

  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Sep-prelim)
  • Germany: Real Estate Opinion (Sep)
  • Slovakia: BOP (Jul)
  • Croatia: Short-term Indicators of Energy (Jul)
  • Mexico: IOAE - Estimated Econ Activity (Aug)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Trade Deficit Increases to Record in June
by Tom Moeller  August 5, 2021

• Petroleum imports surge while exports rise modestly.

• Improving economy lifts nonoil imports.

• Deficit with China narrows further.

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to a record $75.75 billion during June from $70.99 billion in May, revised from $71.24 billion. The data extend back to January 1992. A deficit of $73.5 billion was expected in he Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports increased 0.6% (30.8% y/y) following a 0.9% gain while imports improved 2.1% in June (35.3% y/y) after rising 1.3% in May.

The trade deficit in goods widened to a record $93.17 billion from $89.13 billion in May. It compared to a $91.21 billion deficit in the advance report issued last week. Exports of goods edged 0.2% higher in June (40.7% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Industrial supplies & materials exports increased 2.2% (62.4% y/y) with the rise in oil prices. Auto exports strengthened 1.7% (39.8% y/y) following two months of decline. Nonauto consumer goods exports rose 0.3% in June (45.9% y/y) after a 5.8% jump. To the downside, food exports fell 8.7% (+23.1% y/y) after a 2.3% rise and nonauto capital goods exports eased 0.2% (+23.6% y/y) after slipping 0.9% in May. Imports of goods increased 1.8% (35.9% y/y) after increasing 1.2%. Industrial supplies & materials strengthened 8.9% (59.4% y/y) after a 5.3% May rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports increased 4.1% (29.1% y/y) after a 5.8% rise. Capital goods imports rose 1.3% (26.9% y/y) and reversed May's decline. Falling were nonauto consumer goods imports by 2.5% (+23.0% y/y) and auto imports by 2.4% (+53.0% y/y), down for the third straight month.

Petroleum imports rose 3.5% in June (147.7% y/y) after strengthening 10.9% in May. Nonpetroleum imports rose 1.7% (31.2% y/y following a 0.5% gain.

The real (adjusted for price changes) trade deficit in goods increased to a near-record $105.2 billion (chained 2012 dollars) in June from $101.6 billion in May. Real exports of goods eased 0.7% (+20.0% y/y) after falling 2.0% in May. Real imports of goods increased 1.0% (23.5 y/y) following stability in May.

The surplus of trade in services narrowed in June to $17.4 billion, down from a $21.3 billion surplus one year earlier. The value of services exports rose 1.5% (12.1% y/y) as travel exports gained 7.4% (35.4% y/y). Service imports rose 3.8% (31.3% y/y) led by a 15.2% rise (500.1% y/y) in travel.

The trade deficit with China was little changed at a seasonally adjusted $27.0 billion. Exports fell 1.5% (+29.5% y/y) while imports weakened 0.9% (+6.0% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan narrowed sharply to $4.9 billion as exports rose 0.2% (33.1% y/y) and imports fell 7.4% (+69.9% y/y). The deficit with the European Union widened to $19.6 billion. Exports rose 2.6% (40.1% y/y) and imports improved 4.1% (42.3% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.

Outlooks, Outcomes, and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy from Fed Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida can be found here.

Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current $) Jun May Apr Jun '20 2020 2019 2018
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) 75.75 70.99 69.07 50.68 676.69 576.34 580.95
Y/Y%
Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg) 0.6 0.9 1.0 30.8 -15.6 -0.4 6.2
Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg) 2.1 1.3 -1.4 35.3 -9.5 -0.5 7.4
  Petroleum (% Chg) 3.5 10.9 -1.4 147.7 -39.7 -14.0 20.8
  Nonpetroleum Goods (% Chg) 1.7 0.5 -2.0 31.2 -3.5 -0.5 7.3
close
large image