Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca July 28, 2021
German confidence has a -0.3 reading projected for August, the same as for July. At that level, German confidence is relatively weak with a lower 12.4 percentile queue standing. At this level, the German confidence reading also is at the 66.9 percentile of its all-time high-low range. Confidence in Germany is struggling and lacks momentum.
The GfK survey projects confidence for the month ahead near the end of the previous month. Components for the GfK index are only available through July despite the August overall reading. In July, economic and income expectations fell back as the 'propensity to buy' index ticked higher. Economic expectations actually remain quite strong, in the 95th percentile of their historically ranked data. Income expectations are only at their median at a 50th percentile standing. The propensity to buy index has a much weaker 35.6 percentile rank standing.
Economic and income expectations were very weak in April; since then they made a jump in May and further solid gains in June then both settled lower in July. The propensity to buy index had a very different path, actually weakening in May, then ticking higher in the next two months.
Other countries
Italy, France, and the U.K. have up to date confidence readings through July. All of them have stronger relative readings (higher rankings over the same period as for the GfK index) compared to Germany. Italy has a 97.8 percentile standing. France has an 81.1 percentile standing. The U.K. has a 62.7 percentile standing. These ranking are much stronger than for the German headline measure. Confidence in Italy and in the U.K. rose in July while confidence in France fell back. From April all three countries show sizeable gains, much like Germany.
The virus continues to be a problem. But the U.K. is dropping quarantine requirements in the face of this challenge for those visitors who enter and are fully vaccinated. Virus policies are in the mix and are shifting again as the Delta variant spreads infection in an unexpected wave in mid-summer.