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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes in June
by Charles Steindel  July 21, 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June continue to show wide variance in the pace of recovery. Over the three months ending in June four states (Alaska, Wyoming, Ohio, and Iowa) registered declines, and 12 others had increases of less than 1 percent. On the other side, Massachusetts soared up 7 ½ percent, and Hawaii and West Virginia rose more than 5 percent (Rhode Island was the only other state with an increase greater than 3 percent). Yet again, the state figures look more robust than the national increase of 1.3 percent, since 31 states—including 3 of the 4 largest—registered gains higher than that.

Over the 12 months ending in June state increases ranged from New Mexico’s 4.4 percent to Massachusetts’s 44.8 percent (can the surge in Massachusetts be related to this season’s surprisingly strong showing by the Red Sox?). 35 states showed gains greater than 10 percent, which suggests significant inconsistency with the national increase of 6.4 percent.

42 states saw their indexes grow from May to June. Only 2 (West Virginia and Hawaii) grew more than 1 percent; the largest drop was Alaska’s .3 percent. 13 states, mainly, but not exclusively, in the Mountain West and Plains set new record highs. The largest remaining gaps from their pre-pandemic highs are in Connecticut, Hawaii, and Nevada. In general—with the special cases of travel-intensive Hawaii and Nevada excluded--Northeastern states (with New Hampshire a big exception) are furthest from their previous peaks.

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