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Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
S&P Global Flash PMIs Weaken -Except for Japan
The S&P Global PMI indexes weakened across the board in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten July 15, 2021
• June increases were large but in line with expectations.
• Yearly rates declined slightly but remain elevated.
• Higher fuel prices a major factor behind rise in import prices.
Import and export prices continued to soar in June. Export prices rose 1.2% m/m (16.8% y/y) in June after an unrevised 2.2% m/m jump in May. Import prices rose 1.0% m/m (11.2% y/y) in June versus an upwardly revised 1.4% m/m gain in May (initially 1.1%). The 16.8% y/y gain in export prices was the second largest in the series history, dating back to 1983, exceeded only by the 17.5% y/y surge in May. The Action Economics Forecast survey had looked for import prices to rise 1.2% m/m and for export prices to increase 1.3% m/m.
Prices for imported fuel advanced 4.7% m/m (85.1% y/y) in June following a 5.5% m/m increase the previous month. Higher prices for petroleum and natural gas were key contributors to both advances. The price index for imported petroleum rose 4.6% m/m in June after increasing 5.4% m/m in May. Natural gas prices advanced 8.1% m/m in June following a 7.9% m/m rise the previous month. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% m/m (6.5% y/y) in June, after advances of 0.9% in May, 0.8% in April, and 0.9% in March. In June, higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (1.9% m/m); foods, feeds, and beverages (1.9% m/m); consumer goods ex autos (0.4% m/m); and capital goods (0.2% m/m) all contributed to the increase in nonfuel import prices.
The 1.2% m/m rise in export prices in June was the seventh consecutive month in which export prices have increased more than 1.0%. Higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports both contributed to the overall advance in June. Prices for agricultural exports advanced 1.5% m/m (33.5% y/y) in June following a 6.1% jump in the previous month. In June, a 10.6% m/m increase in meat prices more than offset lower prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. The price index for nonagricultural exports advanced 1.1% m/m (15.0% y/y) in June, after rising 1.8% in May and 1.2% in April. In June, higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (2.1% m/m, driven primarily by higher fuel prices); capital goods (0.4% m/m); and consumer goods ex autos (1.0% m/m) led the advance in nonagricultural export prices.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports - All Commodities | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 11.2 | -2.5 | -1.3 | 3.1 |
Fuels | 4.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 85.1 | -27.8 | -2.1 | 20.8 |
Nonfuels | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 0.3 | -1.1 | 1.3 |
Exports - All Commodities | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 16.8 | -2.8 | -0.9 | 3.4 |
Agricultural | 1.5 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 33.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.6 |
Nonagricultural | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 15.0 | -3.0 | -0.9 | 3.7 |