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Economy in Brief
EMU and Other Central Banks: The Inflation Conundrum
Inflation in the EMU has flared and was last higher in September 2008...
U.S. Retail Sales Improve in August
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 0.7% (15.1% y/y) during August...
U.S. Business Inventories and Sales Rise in Tandem in July
Total business inventories increased 0.5% (7.2% y/y) during July...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds in September
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index jumped 11 points in September to 30.7...
U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise But Remain Near Pandemic Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 332,000 (-61.4% y/y) during the week ended September 11...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2021
• Budget deficit is smaller than expected.
• Tax receipts improve with economic growth.
• Income-security outlays continue to grow.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $2.238 trillion for the first nine months of FY 2021. This compares to a $2.744 trillion deficit over the same period last year. For June alone, the deficit totaled $174.2 billion compared to the June '20 deficit of $864.1 billion. Expectations had been for a $204 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 35.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments jumped 61.6% y/y so far in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments strengthened 187.9% y/y. Social insurance taxes eased 1.5% y/y but customs duties improved 11.2% y/y in FY'21.
Federal government outlays have risen 5.8% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase includes a 45.0% surge in income security payments due to COVID-19 support, including refundable tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, and the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program. Spending on health programs grew 6.0% y/y so far this fiscal year. Defense outlays rose 4.7% y/y so far in FY'21 while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Medicare payments declined 12.5% y/y, due to calendar year differences, while interest payments eased 0.4% y/y so far in FY'21.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Jun | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$174,161 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 | -$665.83 |
| Fiscal YTD | -- | -$2,237.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| % of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 35.2 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 61.6 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 187.9 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | -1.5 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
| Customs Duties | 2 | 11.2 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 5.8 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| National Defense | 11 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
| Health | 11 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
| Medicare | 12 | -12.5 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
| Income Security | 19 | 45.0 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
| Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | -4.5 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
| Interest | 5 | -0.4 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |
