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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls in June to the Lowest Level since May '20
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 55.3 in June...
May JOLTS: Openings, Hiring Slipped, Separations Edged Up
Job openings fell 427,000 in May to 11.254 million...
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The graph shows the clear trend of euro area retail sales...
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
Total factory orders rose 1.6% m/m (14.0% y/y) in May...
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2021
• Budget deficit is smaller than expected.
• Tax receipts improve with economic growth.
• Income-security outlays continue to grow.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $2.238 trillion for the first nine months of FY 2021. This compares to a $2.744 trillion deficit over the same period last year. For June alone, the deficit totaled $174.2 billion compared to the June '20 deficit of $864.1 billion. Expectations had been for a $204 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues increased 35.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments jumped 61.6% y/y so far in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments strengthened 187.9% y/y. Social insurance taxes eased 1.5% y/y but customs duties improved 11.2% y/y in FY'21.
Federal government outlays have risen 5.8% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase includes a 45.0% surge in income security payments due to COVID-19 support, including refundable tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, and the Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program. Spending on health programs grew 6.0% y/y so far this fiscal year. Defense outlays rose 4.7% y/y so far in FY'21 while Social Security payments increased 3.6% y/y. Medicare payments declined 12.5% y/y, due to calendar year differences, while interest payments eased 0.4% y/y so far in FY'21.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Jun | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$174,161 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 | -$665.83 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -$2,237.9 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 35.2 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 61.6 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 187.9 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | -1.5 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 11.2 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 5.8 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
Health | 11 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Medicare | 12 | -12.5 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
Income Security | 19 | 45.0 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | -4.5 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
Interest | 5 | -0.4 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |