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Economy in Brief
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
China's PMIs Improve in June
China's economy has been under pressure...
U.S. GDP Decline is Deepened in Q1'22; Corporate Profit Growth is Shaved
Domestic demand growth reduced...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 2, 2021
• Orders increase paced by transportation.
• Increased shipments largely reflect higher oil prices.
• Order backlogs and inventories continue to rise.
New orders for manufactured goods jumped 1.7% (30.4% y/y) during May following a 0.1% dip in April, revised from -0.6%. It was the largest increase since January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% rise. The 1.4% gain in March was unrevised.
Durable goods orders surged 2.3% following a 0.7% April drop, revised from -1.3%. The May increase was unrevised from the advance report. Transportation sector orders rebounded 7.7% (106.6% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Electrical equipment orders rose 1.3% (23.9% y/y) but machinery orders slipped marginally (+24.3% y/y).
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, improved 1.0% (20.4% y/y) in May after rising 0.5% in April. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 2.8% (125.9% y/y). Basic chemical shipments rose 1.0% (12.7% y/y) but apparel shipments eased 0.1% (+10.0% y/y). Textile product shipments rose 0.9% (15.9% y/y). Shipments of paper products edged 0.1% higher (8.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.4% (31.6% y/y) in May after little change in April. Transportation equipment shipments fell 0.4% (+68.9% y/y) while shipments of furniture eased 0.2% (8.2% y/y). Electrical equipment shipments edged 0.1% higher (20.8% y/y) and computer & electronic product shipments fell 0.3% (+8.7% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products rose 0.9% (4.8% y/y) in May following a 0.5% April gain. Transportation equipment inventories rose 0.1% (4.4% y/y) and excluding transportation inventories rose 1.1% (4.9% y/y). Durable goods inventories increased 0.7% (3.4% y/y) for a second straight month. Nondurable goods inventories rose 1.2% (7.1% y/y) as petroleum inventories increased 6.5% (50.1% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.5% (5.4% y/y) and apparel inventories rose 0.9% (-2.1% y/y).
The value of unfilled orders rose 0.8% (-1.4% y/y) in May after a 0.4% April gain. Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 1.8% (-1.4% y/y). In the transportation sector, they rose 0.4% (-6.9% y/y) and excluding transportation, backlogs jumped 1.6% (11.9% y/y). Electrical equipment order backlogs rose 1.7% (14.6% y/y).
The factory sector data are available in USECON database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.7 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 30.4 | -10.4 | -0.2 | 5.7 |
Shipments | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 25.8 | -6.7 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -8.2 | 10.2 | -1.6 |
Inventories | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 |