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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls in June to the Lowest Level since May '20
The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell to 55.3 in June...
May JOLTS: Openings, Hiring Slipped, Separations Edged Up
Job openings fell 427,000 in May to 11.254 million...
Euro Area Retail Sales Remain Weak
The graph shows the clear trend of euro area retail sales...
U.S. Factory Orders Rise More Than Expected in May
Total factory orders rose 1.6% m/m (14.0% y/y) in May...
Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 24, 2021
• Transportation orders surge, while ex-transportation improves further.
• Core capital goods orders ease following earlier strength.
• Shipments rise along with order backlogs & inventories.
The factory sector remains on a firm footing. Manufacturers' orders for durable goods jumped 2.3% (41.6% y/y) during May following a 0.8% April decline, revised from -1.3%. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Strength in transportation equipment orders propelled last month's increase with a 7.6% jump, more than doubling y/y. The gain was driven by a surge in nondefense aircraft orders as well as a 2.1% increase (95.6% y/y) in orders for motor vehicles & parts. Excluding transportation, orders improved 0.3% (25.2% y/y) following a 1.7% rise in April, revised from 1.0%.
Orders for nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft eased 0.1% (22.7% y/y) following a 2.7% April gain, revised from 2.3%. Elsewhere in the report, orders were mixed. Orders for primary metals rose 2.2% (46.9% y/y) but orders for fabricated metal products fell 1.1% (+34.1% y/y). Electrical equipment orders surged 1.3% (23.8% y/y) but machinery orders eased 0.4% (+23.8% y/y). Computer & electronic product orders slipped 0.3% (+8.9% y/y).
Durable goods shipments rose 0.4% in May (31.6% y/y) after easing marginally in April, revised from +0.6%. Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.9% (20.4% y/y). Shipments of transportation products overall eased 0.4% (+69.0% y/y), while shipments excluding transportation products rose 0.7% (20.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.8% (-1.4% y/y). Order backlogs excluding transportation rose 1.6% (11.9% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.7% (3.3% y/y) in May for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation, inventories surged 1.0% (2.8% y/y), up from inventory decumulation last spring & summer.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, % chg) | 2.3 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 41.6 | -13.6 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
Transportation | 7.6 | -6.6 | -3.1 | 106.4 | -35.5 | 13.2 | 1.7 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 25.2 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 6.9 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | -0.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 5.9 |
Shipments | 0.4 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 31.6 | -6.3 | -1.4 | 5.7 |
Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 20.4 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 6.3 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -8.2 | 10.2 | -1.6 |
Inventories | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 4.4 |