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U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls in June to the Lowest Level since May '20
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Composite PMIs Step Back But Most Still Show Expansion
The S&P global composite PMIs took a turn for the worse in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2021
• Goods trade deficit widens sharply.
• Services trade surplus shrinks to least since 2012.
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $195.7 last quarter from $175.1 billion in Q4'20, revised from $188.5 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $207.0 billion deficit. As a percent of GDP, the deficit grew to 3.6%, it's deepest since Q4'08. During all of 2020, the current account deficit deepened to $616.1 billion, revised from $647.2 billion.
The deficit in goods trade deteriorated to a record $268.5 billion as exports grew 6.4% (2.6% y/y) in Q1. Industrial supplies & materials exports rose 12.8% (4.0% y/y). Food, feeds & beverage exports increased 4.5% (21.9% y/y and capital goods exports rose 4.2% (-7.0% y/y). Falling by 2.5% (-1.0% y/y) were auto, parts & engines exports while nonauto consumer goods exports declined 1.1% (3.0% y/y). Imports of goods rose 6.3% (13.1% y/y) in Q1. The gain reflected a 19.1% rise (12.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials imports as oil prices rose. Nonauto consumer goods imports gained 7.4% (24.8% y/y). Capital goods imports strengthened 5.8% (13.2% y/y) while foods, feeds & beverage imports rose 2.9% (6.8% y/y). Falling 6.2% (2.6% y/y) were auto & parts imports.
The surplus on services trade narrowed to $55.7 billion in Q1. Services exports rose 0.6% (-11.7% y/y) as travel exports strengthened 12.2% (-63.1% y/y). Export charges for the use of intellectual property weakened 7.1% (+1.7% y/y). Imports of services improved 1.5% (-9.8% y/y), reflecting a 5.1% rise (-64.2% y/y) in travel imports in Q4. Imports of charges for the use of intellectual property increased 4.2% (14.8% y/y).
The surplus on primary income fell to $50.3 billion after increasing sharply in Q4'20. Investment income receipts rose 3.8% (3.3% y/y) while investment income payments increased 6.9% (4.8% y/y). The deficit on secondary income grew to $33.3 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. Balance of Payments SA | Q1'21 | Q4'20 | Q3'20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -195.7 | -175.1 | -172.4 | -616.1 | -472.1 | -438.2 |
As % of GDP | -3.6 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -2.1 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -268.5 | -253.1 | -245.4 | -922.0 | -861.5 | -878.7 |
Exports (% Chg) | 6.4 | 7.6 | 23.1 | -13.5 | -1.5 | 7.7 |
Imports (% Chg) | 6.3 | 5.8 | 17.4 | -6.5 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 55.7 | 56.3 | 58.3 | 245.3 | 285.2 | 297.8 |
Exports (% Chg) | 0.6 | 5.0 | 0.7 | -19.5 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
Imports (% Chg) | 1.5 | 9.5 | 7.6 | -22.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 50.3 | 54.2 | 48.3 | 188.5 | 231.9 | 259.1 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -33.3 | -32.5 | -33.5 | -127.9 | -127.7 | -116.4 |