Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 17, 2021
• Component improvement in leader's index remains broad-based.
• Coincident indicators continue to firm.
• Lagging indicators' decline suggests more economic slack.
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.3% (14.7% y/y) during May, the same as in April, revised from 1.6%. The 1.4% March increase was revised from 1.3%. A 1.4% rise in the May index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Component increases in the leading indicators index included an improved ISM new orders index, fewer initial unemployment insurance claims, higher stock prices, more consumer goods orders, a steeper interest rate yield curve, improved consumer expectations and the leading credit index. Building permits and capital goods orders fell slightly while the average workweek was unchanged.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (10.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% April rise. The index rose 1.3% in March, revised from 0.9%. Each of the four component series contributed positively to the May gain, as they did in April, including industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and manufacturing & trade sales.
The Index of Lagging Indicators fell 2.2% (-8.5% y/y) during May after rising 3.0% in April, revised from 1.8%. That followed a 4.2% March drop, revised from -3.7%. A lower consumer installment credit/income ratio accounted for all of the decline. A stronger services CPI was offset by minimal declines in other series.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 14.7 | -4.9 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
Coincident | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 10.4 | -4.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Lagging | -2.2 | 3.0 | -4.2 | -8.5 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |