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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE June 11, 2021
• Federal government borrows $1.543 trillion, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
• Households also borrow more than $1 trillion.
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets and institutions was sizable in Q1 2021, but was similar in absolute size and relative to the size of the economy as it had been in Q4 2020. Consumers, businesses, governments and financial institutions together borrowed $5.414 trillion, equal to 24.5% of GDP, up slightly from $5.262 trillion in Q4, which was also 24.5% of GDP. In contrast, back in Q2 2020, during the pandemic "whipsaw," borrowing had been $13.1 trillion, equal to 67.1% of GDP, due mostly to huge credit demand from the federal government as it began to distribute funds from the CARES Act and other pandemic-related support programs. These dollar amounts are seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The federal government borrowed $1.543 trillion in Q1 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was 7.0% of GDP, down from $2.513 trillion in Q4, equal to 11.7% of GDP.
Households borrowed at an annual rate of $1.08 trillion in Q1, including $124 billion in consumer credit and $591 billion in 1-4 family home mortgages. This latter item reflects the current record-low mortgage rates, which are encouraging a strong home-buying market. The Q1 amount of $581 billion is the largest since Q3 2007, just before the onset of the Great Recession
Corporate businesses again had relatively modest financial dealings in Q1. They had participated in that "whipsaw" back in Q1 and Q2 of 2020, but in Q3 paid down just $240 billion in debt and then borrowed just $175 billion in Q4. Now, in the latest quarter, they again borrowed modestly, $201 billion.
Financial institutions again borrowed notably in Q1, $945 billion, which followed $995 billion in Q4 2020. These represent 4.3% of GDP and 4.6%, respectively. These are the largest back-to-back proportions since before the Great Recession. This sector's borrowing in that pre-Recession period was considerable stronger, approximately 10% of GDP.
Net wealth in the total U.S. economy increased $5.506 trillion (quarterly rate, not annualized or seasonally adjusted) in Q1, following an increase of $8.598 trillion in Q4. The vast majority of the Q1 gain was again the increase in equity values, $4.318 trillion. Household net worth on March 31 was $136.9 trillion, up $4.997 trillion from December 31,
The Financial Accounts data are in Haver's FFUNDS database. Associated information is compiled in the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts produced jointly with the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); these are carried in Haver's USNA database as well as in FFUNDS.
Financial Accounts (SAAR, Bil.$) | Q1'21 | Q4'20 | Q3'20 | Q2'20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Borrowing* | 5,414 | 5,262 | 3,315 | 13,099 | 7,813 | 3,080 | 2,869 |
% of GDP | 24.5 | 24.5 | 15.7 | 67.1 | 37.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 |
Federal Government | 1,543 | 2,513 | 2,045 | 11,598 | 4,581 | 1,175 | 1,258 |
Households | 1,079 | 1,023 | 902 | 10 | 631 | 521 | 489 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Business | 201 | 175 | -240 | 1,650 | 1,013 | 474 | 333 |
Financial Sectors | 945 | 995 | -106 | -1,397 | 894 | 374 | 349 |
Foreign Sector | 948 | 491 | 186 | 205 | 124 | 253 | 198 |
*Previously called "credit market borrowing" and includes debt securities plus loans. The total here includes borrowing by noncorporate business and state & local governments, not shown separately.