Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Kathleen Stephansen May 27, 2021
• Transportation orders drive the monthly decline in overall orders.
• Core capital goods orders remain on a strong trajectory.
• Shipments of durable goods and of core capital goods post healthy gains.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods declined 1.3% in April (+60.1% y/y) after rising 1.3% during March, revised from the previously reported 0.8% on May 4. This was the first monthly decline since April of 2020. A 0.8% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's decline was driven by a 6.7% (+335.2% y/y) fall in transportation equipment orders, notably a decline of 6.2% in vehicle and parts orders. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.0% (+29.9% y/y), following a 3.2% (+17.2% y/y) rise in March.
Orders for nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, "core capital goods" orders, rose a strong 2.3% (+27.1% y/y) in April, following a 1.6% (+14.8% y/y) rise in March.
In the major categories of the report, orders for primary metals rose 3.0% (+46.6% y/y), orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.9% (+46.9% y/y), orders for machinery rose 1.4% (+29.3% y/y), and for computers 0.4% (+9.5% y/y). Orders for electric equipment and appliances declined 0.9% over the month (+25.2% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.6% in April (+37.4% y/y) following a 2.7% (+12.3% y/y) rise in March. Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.9% (+23.5% y/y). Shipments of transportation products dropped 0.4% over the month (+90% y/y), while shipments excluding transportation products rose 1.0% (+23.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in April (-2.5% y/y), following a 0.5% rise in March (-4.4% y/y). Unfilled orders excluding transportation rose 1.6% (+10.1% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.5% (+2.3% y/y) in April, following a 1.0% (+2.1% y/y) rise in March. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) and 0.8% (+0.8% y/y) in March.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 60.1 | -13.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Transportation | -6.7 | -3.1 | 5.6 | 335.2 | -35.8 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.0 | 3.2 | -0.5 | 29.9 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 7.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 27.1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 6.0 |
| Shipments | 0.6 | 2.7 | -3.1 | 37.4 | -6.0 | -1.5 | 5.8 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.9 | 23.5 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 6.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -2.5 | -8.4 | 10.4 | -1.9 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
