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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Kathleen Stephansen May 27, 2021
• Transportation orders drive the monthly decline in overall orders.
• Core capital goods orders remain on a strong trajectory.
• Shipments of durable goods and of core capital goods post healthy gains.
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods declined 1.3% in April (+60.1% y/y) after rising 1.3% during March, revised from the previously reported 0.8% on May 4. This was the first monthly decline since April of 2020. A 0.8% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's decline was driven by a 6.7% (+335.2% y/y) fall in transportation equipment orders, notably a decline of 6.2% in vehicle and parts orders. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.0% (+29.9% y/y), following a 3.2% (+17.2% y/y) rise in March.
Orders for nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, "core capital goods" orders, rose a strong 2.3% (+27.1% y/y) in April, following a 1.6% (+14.8% y/y) rise in March.
In the major categories of the report, orders for primary metals rose 3.0% (+46.6% y/y), orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.9% (+46.9% y/y), orders for machinery rose 1.4% (+29.3% y/y), and for computers 0.4% (+9.5% y/y). Orders for electric equipment and appliances declined 0.9% over the month (+25.2% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.6% in April (+37.4% y/y) following a 2.7% (+12.3% y/y) rise in March. Shipments of core capital goods rose 0.9% (+23.5% y/y). Shipments of transportation products dropped 0.4% over the month (+90% y/y), while shipments excluding transportation products rose 1.0% (+23.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in April (-2.5% y/y), following a 0.5% rise in March (-4.4% y/y). Unfilled orders excluding transportation rose 1.6% (+10.1% y/y).
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.5% (+2.3% y/y) in April, following a 1.0% (+2.1% y/y) rise in March. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) and 0.8% (+0.8% y/y) in March.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | -1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 60.1 | -13.6 | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Transportation | -6.7 | -3.1 | 5.6 | 335.2 | -35.8 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.0 | 3.2 | -0.5 | 29.9 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 7.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 27.1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 6.0 |
| Shipments | 0.6 | 2.7 | -3.1 | 37.4 | -6.0 | -1.5 | 5.8 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods Excl. Aircraft | 0.9 | 1.5 | -0.9 | 23.5 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 6.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -2.5 | -8.4 | 10.4 | -1.9 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
