Recent Updates
- **EIA releases, including WPSR, are delayed by the source**
- US: New Residential Sales (May)
- Canada: Payroll Employment, Earnings, & Hours (Apr)
- Italy: Non-EU International Trade (May)
- Mexico: Economic Activity (Apr), Construction (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 20, 2021
• Leaders' improvement is broad-based.
• Coincident indicators increase.
• Lagging indicators suggest less economic slack.
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.6% (17.0% y/y) during April following an unrevised 1.3% March gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 1.3% rise in April. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.
Component increases in the leading indicators index reflected an improved ISM new orders index, fewer initial unemployment insurance claims, higher stock prices, a steeper interest rate yield curve and improved consumer expectations.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.3% (12.2% y/y) following a 0.9% March rise, revised from 0.6%. Each of the four component series contributed positively to the April gain, as they did in March, including industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, personal income and manufacturing & trade sales.
The Index of Lagging Indicators increased 1.8% (-9.3% y/y) during April following a 3.7% March drop, revised from -0.5%. A higher consumer installment credit/income ratio accounted for nearly all of the rise, with a stronger services CPI and a longer duration of unemployment also contributing positively.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 17.0 | -4.9 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
Coincident | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 12.2 | -4.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
Lagging | 1.8 | -3.7 | 2.5 | -9.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |