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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline
The AAA retail price of gasoline fell seven cents to $4.94 per gallon (+60.4% y/y) in the week ended June 24...
French Consumer Worries Intensify in the Wake of Russia Attack
French confidence is weak in June 2022...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm in May
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods exhibited unexpected improvement in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 14, 2021
• Stability follows near record March strength.
• Weakness was broad-based.
• March reading was upwardly revised.
The consumer took a breather after store re-openings and government-issued $1,400 checks stimulated spending during March. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments held steady (51.2% y/y) during April after strengthening an upwardly revised 10.7% in March, a gain surpassed only by a record 18.1% surge last May following extreme weakness in April. (The retail sales figures date back to February 1967). February's 2.9% decline was changed from -2.7% reported initially. A 1.3% April increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.8% last month (+40.6% y/y) after rising 9.0% in March, revised from 8.4%. A 0.9% April rise had been expected.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, declined 1.5% last month (+29.1% y/y) after rising 7.6% in March.
Motor vehicle purchases increased 2.9% in April (104.5% y/y) following a 17.1% March rise. The gain compares to a 2.5% improvement (112.1% y/y) in unit sales of light vehicles. Spending at clothing & accessory stores declined 5.1% (+726.8% y/y) after rising 22.7% in March. General merchandise store sales were off 4.9% last month (+15.1% y/y) after rising 9.7%. Department store sales fell 1.9% (+72.5% y/y) following strong gains in two of the prior three months. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales fell 3.6% (+155.0% y/y) after rising by one-quarter in March. Furniture & home furnishings sales eased 0.7% last month (+196.4% y/y) after improving 8.1% while sales at electronics & appliance stores rose 1.2% (139.0% y/y) after gaining 17.5% in March. Nonstore retail sales edged down 0.6% in April (+14.5% y/y) after gaining 4.7% in March.
Building materials sales fell 0.4% (+33.8% y/y) after rising 13.9% in March. Reflecting lower gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted by Haver), service station sales fell 1.1% (+76.1% y/y) following four straight months of strong increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, grocery & beverage store sales improved 0.4% in April (1.5% y/y) after rising 0.7% in the prior month. Health & personal care store sales increased 1.0% (24.7% y/y) following an 8.0% March rise.
Sales at restaurants and drinking establishments strengthened 3.0% (116.8% y/y) in April after gaining 13.5% during the prior month.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.0 | 10.7 | -2.9 | 51.2 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
Excluding Autos | -0.8 | 9.0 | -2.7 | 40.6 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 5.1 |
Retail Sales | -0.3 | 10.4 | -3.0 | 46.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
Retail Less Autos | -1.4 | 8.4 | -2.8 | 33.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.9 | 17.1 | -3.6 | 104.5 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
Food & Beverage Stores | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 11.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Gasoline Service Stations | -1.1 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 76.1 | -15.8 | -1.7 | 9.2 |
Food Service & Drinking Places | 3.0 | 13.5 | -1.4 | 116.8 | -19.4 | 5.6 | 5.7 |