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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 12, 2021
• Budget deficit exceeds expectations.
• Coronavirus-related outlays balloon.
• Individual tax receipts strengthen with economic improvement.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $1.932 trillion for the first seven months of FY 2021. This compares to a $1.481 trillion deficit over the same period last year. For April alone, the deficit totaled $225.6 billion compared to expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for a $130 billion deficit. One year ago, the first round of COVID-19 stimulus checks to individuals produced an April '20 deficit of $738.0 billion.
Federal government outlays have risen 22.5% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase includes a 95.3% surge in income security payments due to coronavirus relief payments, economic stimulus checks and outlays related to a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs grew 13.0% y/y so far this fiscal year. Social Security payments increased 3.8% y/y and defense outlays rose 6.6% y/y so far in FY'21. Medicare payments fell 9.5% y/y, due to calendar year differences, and interest payments fell 13.6% y/y so far in FY'21.
Overall revenues have increased 16.1% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments jumped 20.1% y/y in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments demonstrated even more strength. Social insurance taxes rose 3.6% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered growth in customs duties to 1.1% y/y in FY'21.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Apr | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$225,579 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 | -$665.83 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -$1,931.84 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 16.1 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 20.1 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 100.9 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 1.1 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 22.5 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
Health | 11 | 13.0 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Medicare | 12 | -9.5 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
Income Security | 19 | 95.3 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 18.5 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 21.7 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
Interest | 5 | -13.6 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |