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Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
U.S. Energy Prices Decline
The AAA retail price of gasoline fell seven cents to $4.94 per gallon (+60.4% y/y) in the week ended June 24...
French Consumer Worries Intensify in the Wake of Russia Attack
French confidence is weak in June 2022...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2021
• Foreign trade deficit increases as economy improves.
• Exports and imports reversed earlier declines.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record $90.59 billion during March from $87.07 billion in February. During Q1'21, the trade deficit averaged $87.34 billion versus $83.44 billion averaged in Q4'20. An $87.4 billion March deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Exports increased 8.7% (11.5% y/y) last month after a 3.6% February decline. Imports improved 6.8% (20.6% y/y) after falling 1.0% in February.
By category, nonauto consumer goods exports jumped 15.3% (18.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Exports of capital goods rose 7.3% (-1.2% y/y) after falling 5.9% in February. Autos & parts exports increased 7.2% (15.4% y/y) after declining for two straight months. Foods, feeds & beverages exports edged 0.9% higher (21.5% y/y), also following two months of significant decline, while industrial supplies & materials exports rose 10.1% (19.2% y/y) after a 0.8% improvement.
Imports of autos & parts rose 7.3% (8.3% y/y) following two months of significant decline. Food & beverage imports rebounded 7.0% (9.4% y/y) last month after falling 4.9% in February. Nonauto consumer goods imports rebounded 7.0% (37.5% y/y) following a 4.2% drop. Auto & parts imports rose 7.3% (8.3% y/y) after falling sharply for two straight months. Industrial supplies imports strengthened 7.6% (22.1% y/y) with higher oil prices. Capital goods imports rose 5.7% (16.6 y/y) after a 0.3% improvement.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -90.59 | -87.07 | -84.35 | -65.59 (3/20) | -904.95 | -854.37 | -872.04 |
Exports (% Chg) | 8.7 | -3.6 | 1.7 | 11.5 | -12.9 | -1.4 | 7.7 |
Imports (% Chg) | 6.8 | -1.0 | 1.6 | 20.6 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 8.5 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.