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Economy in Brief
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
China's PMIs Improve in June
China's economy has been under pressure...
U.S. GDP Decline is Deepened in Q1'22; Corporate Profit Growth is Shaved
Domestic demand growth reduced...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Charles Steindel April 23, 2021
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in March show widespread recovery, though with some choppiness. In the three months ending in March the indexes for 49 states increased (Delaware inched down). Michigan surged up more than 10 percent; 21 other states were up more than 2 percent. Only 7 states (including Delaware) had increases of less than 1 percent. The national gain of 1.6 percent over this period seemed reasonably representative of the state numbers, in contrast to recent experience.
Over the 12 months ending in March a dozen states recorded gains. Almost surely 12-month increases will become universal in April (comparable to the “base period” situation for price indexes). 4 states—Connecticut, West Virginia, Massachusetts, and Hawaii—had declines of more than 10 percent. Comparable to the 3-month change, 49 states saw increases from February to March, with Delaware again the outlier. There were no remarkably large gains (North Dakota's 1.5 percent was the largest).
The formula for computing these indexes is, most likely, not fully incorporating March's large payroll employment increase; in part for technical reasons, but also because at the state level job gains were reported as less strong than the headline national number (the sum of the state increases was somewhat less than the national one).