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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 16, 2021
• Starts rebound after harsh winter weather limited building activity.
• Single-family & multi-family starts rise sharply.
• Building permits increase moderately.
Better weather and low interest rates boosted housing last month. Housing starts jumped 19.4% (37.0% y/y) during March to 1.739 million units (SAAR) after falling 11.3% in February to 1.457 million, revised from 1.421 million. Starts in January eased 1.7% to 1.642 million, revised from 1.584 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.610 million starts in March.
Starts of single-family homes jumped 15.3% in March (40.7% y/y) to 1.238 million from 1.074 million in February, revised from 1.040 million. Starts of multi-family units surged 30.8% last month (28.8% y/y) to 501,000 from 383,000, revised from 381,000.
Building permits improved 2.7% (30.2% y/y) to 1.766 million from 1.720 million in February, revised from 1.682 million. That reversed part of the February decline. Permits to build single-family homes rose 4.6% (33.6% y/y) to 1.199 million after falling 9.8% in February. Permits to build multi-family homes eased 1.2% (+20.1% y/y) to 567,000 after a 6.8% February decline.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast jumped by roughly two-thirds and more than doubled y/y to 182,000 after falling 46.1% in February. In the Midwest, starts surged 122.8% (87.0% y/y) to 303,000, the highest level since February 2006. Housing starts in the South rose 13.5% (24.0% y/y) to 874,000 following February's 6.2% decline. In the West, starts fell 13.6% (+19.5% y/y) to 380,000 after rising 8.9% during February.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1,739 | 1,457 | 1,642 | 37.0 | 1,395 | 1,295 | 1,248 |
Single-Family | 1,238 | 1,074 | 1,152 | 40.7 | 1,000 | 893 | 872 |
Multi-Family | 501 | 383 | 490 | 28.8 | 396 | 403 | 376 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 182 | 111 | 206 | 116.7 | 113 | 115 | 111 |
Midwest | 303 | 136 | 211 | 87.0 | 193 | 170 | 170 |
South | 874 | 770 | 821 | 24.0 | 741 | 689 | 630 |
West | 380 | 440 | 404 | 19.5 | 348 | 322 | 337 |
Building Permits | 1,766 | 1,720 | 1,886 | 30.2 | 1,438 | 1,386 | 1,329 |