The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March compared to a deficit of $119.0 billion one year earlier. For the first six months of this fiscal year the deficit rose to $1.706 trillion.

Federal government outlays have risen 45.3% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase has been driven by a 243.4% surge in income security payments due to coronavirus relief payments, economic stimulus checks and outlays related to a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs also surged 28.2% y/y. Medicare payments rose 4.6% y/y and Social Security payments increased 3.9% y/y. Defense outlays rose 4.2% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments fell 15.1% y/y.

Overall revenues have increased 6.3% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments rose 4.2% y/y in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments increased even more quickly. Social insurance taxes rose 3.7% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 6.5% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.