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Economy in Brief
Italian Consumer Confidence Remains Hammered Down
Italy's consumer confidence fell month-to-month...
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
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The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2021
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March compared to a deficit of $119.0 billion one year earlier. For the first six months of this fiscal year the deficit rose to $1.706 trillion.
Federal government outlays have risen 45.3% y/y so far in FY'21. The increase has been driven by a 243.4% surge in income security payments due to coronavirus relief payments, economic stimulus checks and outlays related to a higher unemployment rate. Spending on health programs also surged 28.2% y/y. Medicare payments rose 4.6% y/y and Social Security payments increased 3.9% y/y. Defense outlays rose 4.2% y/y so far in FY'21 but interest payments fell 15.1% y/y.
Overall revenues have increased 6.3% y/y so far this fiscal year. Individual income tax payments rose 4.2% y/y in FY'21 due to improved economic growth while corporate tax payments increased even more quickly. Social insurance taxes rose 3.7% y/y, but the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 6.5% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | Mar | FY'20 | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billion $) | -- | -$659,592 | -$3,131.92 | -$984.39 | -$779.00 | -$665.83 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | -$1,706.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
% of Total (FY 2020) | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.3 | -1.2 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 7.2 | -6.4 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 6 | 23.9 | -8.0 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 38 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Customs Duties | 2 | -6.5 | -3.2 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2021, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 45.3 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
National Defense | 11 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 |
Health | 11 | 28.2 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 |
Medicare | 12 | 4.6 | 19.2 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 |
Income Security | 19 | 243.4 | 145.0 | 3.9 | -1.6 | -2.1 |
Social Security | 17 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 3 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 16.0 | 75.5 | 43.7 | -34.0 | 31.6 |
Interest | 5 | -15.1 | -8.2 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 |